* Ifo index fell to 86.4 in March from 88.4 in February
* Iran war impacts German economic recovery, says Ifo's
Fuest
* Decline in headline index driven by falling
expectations
(Updates lead, adds economist comments from paragraph 4)
By Maria Martinez
BERLIN, March 25 (Reuters) - German business morale fell
sharply in March, as the Iran war made companies more
pessimistic and threatened the long-awaited recovery of Europe's
biggest economy.
"The war in Iran has, for the time being, ended hopes of an
economic upswing," said Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo
institute that on Wednesday said its business climate index fell
to 86.4 in March compared with a revised 88.4 in February.
Analysts had forecast it would drop to 86.1.
"The recovery is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz," said
Sebastian Wanke, economist at KfW, adding that with every week
that the Iran war continues, business sentiment is depressed
further and the economy is held back.
The decline in the headline index was due to significantly
more pessimistic expectations, which fell to 86.0 in March from
90.2 in February as uncertainty among companies increased.
Assessments of the current situation, however, remained
unchanged at 86.7.
WAR COULD DERAIL RECOVERY
"If the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were to
continue for another one or two months, the economic damage to
Germany would be clearly noticeable," said Joerg Kraemer, chief
economist at Commerzbank.
In line with the decline in the Ifo index, the Purchasing
Managers Index on Tuesday showed Germany's private sector growth
slowed to its weakest pace in three months in March as services
lost momentum and the Middle East conflict drove freight and
energy costs higher.
"The fall in the German Ifo index and the composite PMI in
March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could
derail the tentative recovery in the German economy," said
Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.
While the Ifo business climate index fell across all
sectors, the PMIs showed an improvement in manufacturing
activity and a deterioration in services.
Palmas said Germany will be more resilient than in 2022
because the rise in energy prices has been much smaller so far
and a lot of the least profitable energy-intensive production
has already been permanently lost.
"But GDP may still stagnate in the middle of the year," she
said, cutting forecasts to 0.5% growth from 0.8% before the
conflict started.