March 5 (Reuters) - German long-dated bonds suffered
their worst selloff in years and the euro jumped to its highest
level in almost four months after the German conservatives and
the Social Democrats (SPD) agreed to seek a loosening of
Germany's debt brake.
European shares bounced back on Wednesday after their worst
day in more than six months.
Germany aims to allow higher defence spending and propose
the creation of a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund, their
leaders said on Tuesday.
"'Don't underestimate Germany's capacity to change' was our
hypothesis into the year and just as most people gave up on
Europe," said Maximillian Uleer, strategist at Deutsche Bank.
"Today, Germany announced a 'whatever it takes' plan,", he
argued, adding: "Is Make Europe Great Again (MEGA) the new
MAGA?"
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area's benchmark, climbed
19 basis points (bps) to 2.67%, in its biggest daily rise since
mid-March 2020, at the height of the pandemic crisis.
Germany's 30-year yield was up 16 bps after
rising almost 25 bps to 3.07% in its biggest daily jump since
October 1998.
"Higher spending is likely to weigh on the longer end of the
curve. We thus close our long duration call on Bunds," Deutsche
Bank's Uleer added.
Money markets reduced their bets on European Central Bank
rate cuts, pricing in a depo rate of 2% in December
from 1.92% late Tuesday.
Germany's 2-year yield, more sensitive to ECB
policy rates, rose 13.5 bps to 2.15%.
"This proposal (to loosen the debt brake) could ultimately
mean even more new debt than the earlier media reports about a
combined 900 billion euros package for defence and investment,"
said Christoph Rieger, rate strategist at Commerzbank, arguing
that "the military component is in principle unlimited."
"Moreover, the measures could also give the future
governments more fiscal space beyond military and investment in
the upcoming budgets," he added.
The spread between the risk-free 10-year overnight index
swap (OIS) and Bund yields dropped to -23 bps, its
lowest level since August 2010.
The single currency jumped as investors eyed the prospective
increases in fiscal spending, which could boost the economy.
The euro was up 0.5% at $1.068, its highest since
November 11, jumping by almost 3% since Monday.
The single currency's rise against the yen was more
moderate, climbing 0.13% at 159.40.
"The euro/dollar broke decisively higher on prospects of a
fiscal bazooka out of Europe. The speed with which the Europeans
are moving is impressive, especially in Germany," said Chris
Turner, forex strategist at ING.
"Expect much focus now on whether the agreed fiscal changes
in Germany move swiftly and easily through parliament over
coming weeks," he added.