(Updates with further details)
By Alun John
LONDON Aug 7 (Reuters) - British bond yields rose on
Thursday, sending the pound higher after the Bank of England cut
interest rates as expected but concern over inflation among
policymakers caused markets to reduce the amount of further rate
cuts they expect this year.
Four of the BoE's nine policymakers voted to keep rates on
hold, with the Monetary Policy Committee needing two votes for
the first time in its history to settle on a 25 basis point rate
cut.
The BoE is being pulled in different directions as Britain's
job market has weakened in recent months, but inflation is
rising - the BoE's updated projections from Thursday show
headline CPI peaking at 4% next month.
The second vote was required after one policymaker voted for
a larger 50 basis point cut but, with four voting to hold, more
policymakers are prioritising the inflation side of that
equation than investors had thought prior to the meeting.
"Essentially the committee collectively is more concerned
with the pace of disinflation, and that resulted in less
willingness to cut rates across members than we had believed,"
said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
"We are still for now forecasting a 25 bps cut to rates in
November, but clearly we could be looking at another very finely
balanced decision and the outturn will, of course, depend on the
data between then and now."
Yields on British government bonds, or gilts, rose, and the
rate-sensitive 2-year yield was last up 5 basis points at 3.88%.
Thursday's move was the Bank of England's fifth cut since
August last year. Ahead of the meeting, markets had fully priced
a further 25 basis point cut late this year, but the vote split
caused traders to become less certain that would materialise.
Trading was choppy, but LSEG data last indicated around a
75% chance of another such rate cut this year.
The benchmark 10-year yield at one point rose more than 6
basis points at 4.597%, and was last at 4.57%.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who voted to cut,
said that he thought rates were still on a downward path.
But, he added, "There is, however, genuine uncertainty now
about the course of that direction of rates."
STRONGER STERLING
The pound rose after the decision, and was last up 0.55% on
the dollar at $1.3424, and was stronger by a similar amount on
the euro at 86.71 pence to the common currency.
That reaction to higher gilt yields is what would typically
be expected to happen, as currencies are often shaped by rate
differentials between markets, but, on several occasions this
year, worries about Britain's fiscal position have seen the
pound fall at the same time as gilt yields rose.
A slower pace of Bank of England easing could support the
pound further, and is causing some investors and analysts to
reassess their positions on the British currency.
"We've been long euro-sterling for the last couple of
months. It's been a good trade and part of that has been the
risk of a dovish BoE relative to a more hawkish ECB," said
Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.
"Today's developments probably do put that position into
question. It will certainly make us think about our conviction
on that one."
The European Central Bank is likely already at the end of
its rate cutting cycle, but markets anticipate more rate cuts
from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Less BoE easing and higher yields is bad news for most
stocks, however.
London's blue-chip FTSE 100 index extended an
earlier loss, and was last down 0.8%, with the mid-cap FTSE 250
index giving back earlier gains to trade just below flat.
The broad European benchmark was up nearly 1%.
(Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo and Danilo Masoni in
Milan and Lucy Raitano and Samuel Indyk in London; editing by
Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond and Alex Richardson)