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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG down from one-month high ahead of Lunar New Year
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG down from one-month high ahead of Lunar New Year
Jan 10, 2025 7:07 AM

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural

gas (LNG) prices fell this week from a one-month high, amid weak

demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, healthy

stocks and as recent high prices kept some buyers at bay.

The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east

Asia was $14.00 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), down from $14.60 last week, industry sources estimated.

"Spot gas prices in Europe and in Asia have dropped back

from their highs at the start of the month, as the market has

absorbed the shutdown of Russia-Ukraine pipe flows" said Alex

Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.

"China's demand doesn't seem too strong at the moment.

November and December dropped below last year's levels and we

saw three cargoes re-exported in December, one each to South

Korea, Thailand and Japan," Froley said.

The high price levels over the past weeks have kept price

sensitive buyers in both China and India away from the spot

market, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

With stocks still relatively well-filled and not much

economic improvement given the latest numbers on Chinese

industrial production and inflation, it seems clear that some

portfolio managers must be well-prepared for the second half of

the winter, said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild

Commodity Intelligence.

"As the Lunar New Year approaches, the risk of any shortfall

during the winter season decreases by the day. It is hence no

surprise that spot activity is still limited with only

Bangladesh as an active buyer at the moment," Dozeman added.

In Europe, LNG delivered prices fell this week from a

one-year high the previous week. However, the inter-basin

arbitrage, moving cargos from one market to another, has held

firmly shut, with at least two cargoes diverting in the

mid-Atlantic to Europe this week as Asian buyers are not

competing for Atlantic basin supply, Argus' Martin Senior said.

Meanwhile, Europe has been withdrawing from gas storage

faster than the last few years but those winters were mild, and

this year's trajectory is not out of line with longer-term

averages, ICIS' Froley said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $13.385/mmBtu on Jan. 9, a

$0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch TTF

hub.

Argus assessed the price at $13.355/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed it at $13.324/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal

is currently also signalling U.S. cargoes are incentivised to

deliver to north-west Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst

Qasim Afghan.

The front-month arbitrage is also firmly closed, likely a

large driving factor behind the recent diversions of U.S.

cargoes away from Asia and towards Europe.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped to $24,000/day on

Friday, while Pacific rates remained steady at $21,750/day,

Afghan added.

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