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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot prices fall on weak demand and rising supply
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot prices fall on weak demand and rising supply
Jul 4, 2025 4:35 AM

SINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied

natural gas (LNG) eased this week as subdued demand, rising

supply and ample inventories weighed on prices, while the

ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk premiums.

The average LNG price for August delivery into north-east

Asia was $12.70 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), down from $13.10/mmBtu last week, industry sources

estimated.

"Rising Pacific supply, high LNG inventories in China and

South Korea, and weak industrial demand across China and India

continued to pressure the market. The Iran-Israel ceasefire

further eased geopolitical risk premiums," said Kpler analyst Go

Katayama, adding that output from Australia, Malaysia and

Nigeria has increased.

"Looking ahead, the bearish outlook persists, with initial

LNG Canada exports adding to supply length. While soft

fundamentals dominate, further price declines could stimulate

restocking, particularly in Japan."

LNG stockpiles held by major Japanese utilities fell to 2.15

million tons as of June 29, industry ministry data showed, as

hotter weather drives cooling demand. This is down from 2.27

million tons the previous week but slightly above the five-year

average of 2.1 million tons.

"Despite steady nuclear output, rising temperatures are

outpacing non-gas generation capacity, potentially triggering

incremental spot buying if the heatwave persists," added

Katayama.

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily

North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes

delivered in August on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.142/mmBtu

on July 3, a $0.435/mmBtu discount to the August gas price at

the TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price for August delivery at

$11.19/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at

$11.175/mmBtu.

"A lack of a demand catalyst in the global LNG market failed

to spark strong price reactions on the week with the supply

picture balancing out as increased liquefaction from the U.S.

and Qatar helped to improve supply fundamentals," said Aly

Blakeway, manager of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Commodity

Insights.

"With large supply hubs returning from maintenance and Asian

demand still relatively on the sidelines, Europe continued to

attract the brunt of cargoes as a closed arbitrage to Asia and

heatwaves in the Mediterranean lured in waterborne LNG cargoes."

European prices have seen limited upside as demand in

competing regions has been weak, while the European Union's less

stringent storage targets have shifted supply risks to winter,

said Xiaoyi Deng, deputy head of LNG pricing at Argus.

"This is reflected in increasing winter premiums over prompt

deliveries in recent weeks," said Deng.

Meanwhile, the U.S. arbitrage to northeast Asia via the Cape

of Good Hope is marginally pointing to Europe, while the

arbitrage via Panama continues pointing to Asia for a fifth

week, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $42,000/day, while

Pacific rates eased to $40,000/day, he added.

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