SINGAPORE, July 4 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied
natural gas (LNG) eased this week as subdued demand, rising
supply and ample inventories weighed on prices, while the
ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk premiums.
The average LNG price for August delivery into north-east
Asia was $12.70 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), down from $13.10/mmBtu last week, industry sources
estimated.
"Rising Pacific supply, high LNG inventories in China and
South Korea, and weak industrial demand across China and India
continued to pressure the market. The Iran-Israel ceasefire
further eased geopolitical risk premiums," said Kpler analyst Go
Katayama, adding that output from Australia, Malaysia and
Nigeria has increased.
"Looking ahead, the bearish outlook persists, with initial
LNG Canada exports adding to supply length. While soft
fundamentals dominate, further price declines could stimulate
restocking, particularly in Japan."
LNG stockpiles held by major Japanese utilities fell to 2.15
million tons as of June 29, industry ministry data showed, as
hotter weather drives cooling demand. This is down from 2.27
million tons the previous week but slightly above the five-year
average of 2.1 million tons.
"Despite steady nuclear output, rising temperatures are
outpacing non-gas generation capacity, potentially triggering
incremental spot buying if the heatwave persists," added
Katayama.
In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily
North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes
delivered in August on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.142/mmBtu
on July 3, a $0.435/mmBtu discount to the August gas price at
the TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price for August delivery at
$11.19/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at
$11.175/mmBtu.
"A lack of a demand catalyst in the global LNG market failed
to spark strong price reactions on the week with the supply
picture balancing out as increased liquefaction from the U.S.
and Qatar helped to improve supply fundamentals," said Aly
Blakeway, manager of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Commodity
Insights.
"With large supply hubs returning from maintenance and Asian
demand still relatively on the sidelines, Europe continued to
attract the brunt of cargoes as a closed arbitrage to Asia and
heatwaves in the Mediterranean lured in waterborne LNG cargoes."
European prices have seen limited upside as demand in
competing regions has been weak, while the European Union's less
stringent storage targets have shifted supply risks to winter,
said Xiaoyi Deng, deputy head of LNG pricing at Argus.
"This is reflected in increasing winter premiums over prompt
deliveries in recent weeks," said Deng.
Meanwhile, the U.S. arbitrage to northeast Asia via the Cape
of Good Hope is marginally pointing to Europe, while the
arbitrage via Panama continues pointing to Asia for a fifth
week, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to $42,000/day, while
Pacific rates eased to $40,000/day, he added.