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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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Nikkei slips 0.2%, Wall St futures tick down
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Dollar underpinned by high Treasury yields
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Light data diary dominated by PMI surveys
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Asian shares edged lower on
Monday as high Treasury yields challenged lofty Wall Street
equity valuations while underpinning the U.S. dollar near
multi-month peaks.
Volumes were light with the New Year holiday looming and a
rather bare data diary this week. China has the PMI factory
surveys out on Tuesday, while the U.S. ISM survey for December
is due on Friday.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
dipped 0.2%, but is still 16% higher for the
year. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.2%, but is sitting on gains
of 20% for 2024.
South Korea's main index has not been so fortunate,
having run into a storm of political uncertainty in recent
weeks, and is saddled with losses of more than 9% for the year.
It was last off 0.35%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both
off 0.1%. Wall Street suffered a broad-based sell off on Friday
with no obvious trigger, though volumes were just two-thirds of
the daily average. .
The S&P 500 is still up 25% for the year and the Nasdaq 31%,
which is stretching valuations when compared to the risk-free
return of Treasuries. Investors are counting on earnings per
share growth of just over 10% in 2025, versus a 12.47% expected
rise in 2024, according to LSEG data.
Yet yields on 10-year Treasuries are near
eight-month highs at 4.631% and ending the year around 75 basis
points above where they started it, even though the Fed
delivered 100 basis points of cuts to cash rates.
"The continued rise in bond yields, driven by the
reassessment of less restrictive monetary policy expectations,
creates some concern," said Quasar Elizundia, a research
strategist at broker Pepperstone.
"The possibility that the Fed may keep restrictive monetary
policy for longer than expected could temper corporate earnings
growth expectations for 2025, which could in turn influence
investment decisions."
Bond investors may also be wary of burgeoning supply as
President-elect Donald Trump is promising tax cuts with few
concrete proposals for restraining the budget deficit.
Trump is expected to release at least 25 executive orders
when he takes office on Jan. 20, covering a range of issues from
immigration to energy and crypto policy.
Widening interest rate differentials have kept the U.S.
dollar in demand, giving it gains of 6.5% for the year on a
basket of major currencies.
The euro has lost more than 5% on the dollar so far in 2024
to last stand at $1.0429, not far from its recent
two-year trough of $1.0344.
The dollar held near a five-month top on the yen at 157.71
, with only the risk of Japanese intervention preventing
another test of the 160.00 barrier.
The strength of the dollar has been something of a burden
for gold prices, though the metal is still 28% higher for the
year so far at $2,624 an ounce.
Oil has had a tougher year as concerns about demand,
particularly from China, kept a lid on prices and forced OPEC+
to repeatedly extend a deal to limit supplies.
Brent fell 37 cents to $73.80 a barrel, while U.S.
crude lost 17 cents to $70.43 per barrel.