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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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EU stock futures, euro steady for now after retreat
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Wall St futures edge up before Fed, mega cap earnings
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Analysts warn tariffs a drag for EU and US economies
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Oil holds gains after Trump shortens Russia deadline
(Updates prices to Asia afternoon)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, July 29 (Reuters) - Asia shares slipped on
Tuesday while the euro nursed its losses as investors pondered
the downside of the U.S.-EU trade deal and the reality that
punishing tariffs were here to stay, with unwelcome implications
for growth and inflation.
The initial relief over Europe's 15% levy quickly soured
when set against the 1% to 2% that stood before President Donald
Trump took office. Leaders in France and Germany lamented the
outcome as a drag on growth, pulling down stocks and bond yields
across the continent while slugging the single currency.
Trump also flagged a "world tariff" rate of 15% to 20% on
all trading partners that were not negotiating a deal, among the
highest rates since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
"While the worst case scenario was averted, the implied EU
tariff increase from 1% in January is a significant tax increase
on EU exports," wrote economists from JPMorgan in a note.
"This is a very big shock that unwinds a century of U.S.
leadership in global free trade," they warned. "While we no
longer see a U.S. recession as our baseline from this shock, the
risk is still elevated at 40%."
A further risk to world growth came from a sudden spike in
oil prices after Trump threatened a new deadline of 10 or 12
days for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in
Ukraine or face tougher sanctions on oil exports.
The air of caution saw MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan slip 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei
lost 0.9%, while Chinese blue chips were flat.
European shares steadied after Monday's sell-off. EUROSTOXX
50 futures, FTSE futures and DAX futures
all edged up around 0.2%.
The euro was flat at $1.1587, after falling 1.3%
overnight in the largest drop since mid-May. It now has chart
support at $1.1556.
The dollar index was up at 98.675, after the rush out
of short dollar positions lifted it 1% overnight, while it eased
a one-week high on the yen to stand at 148.27.
Wall Street held firm on hopes for upbeat results from mega
caps this week that include Apple ( AAPL ), Meta Platforms ( META )
, Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Amazon ( AMZN ).
S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures
added 0.2%.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries held at 4.408%
having crept higher on Monday as markets braced for another
steady decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Futures imply a 97% chance the Fed will keep rates at
4.25%-4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday and reiterate concerns
that tariffs will push inflation higher in the short term.
Analysts also assume one, or maybe two, Fed officials will
dissent in favour of a cut and supporting wagers for a move in
September.
The odds could change depending on a slew of U.S. data this
week including gross domestic product for the second quarter
where growth is seen rebounding to an annualised 2.4%, after a
0.5% contraction in the first quarter.
Figures on job openings are due later on Tuesday that will
help refine forecasts for the crucial payrolls report on Friday.
Canada's central bank also meets on Wednesday and again is
widely expected to hold rates at 2.75% as it waits to see how
trade talks with the U.S. wash out.
In commodity markets, prices for copper and iron ore were
under pressure while gold idled at $3,315 an ounce.
Brent was off a fraction at $69.90 a barrel, having
climbed 2.3% on Monday, while U.S. crude held at $66.60.
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Sam Holmes)