* Asian stocks join Wall Street in sharp drop
* Traders rapidly cut Fed rate cut wagers for the year
* Investors focus on oil prices, inflation risks
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks slumped on
Friday, poised for a second straight weekly decline as
fast-dwindling hopes of a resolution to the U.S. and Israel's
war with Iran kept oil prices aloft, casting a shadow over
global markets and spurring inflation fears.
The U.S. dollar has become the safe-haven of choice during
the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure. The
dollar was set for a second consecutive week of gains and is up
2% since the war broke out at the end of February.
Oil prices remained close to the closely watched $100 per
barrel level, although they eased a bit in early trading on
Friday after U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy
Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea.
Brent futures were last at $99.85 a barrel, while
West Texas Intermediate crude was at $95.05 a barrel.
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
eased 0.5%, on course for a 1.5% decline for the
week. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.3%, while tech-heavy South
Korean stocks slid nearly 2% and Taiwan equities
fell 1%.
With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its
new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of
Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a
prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.
The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly
reprice what they expect from central banks this year, with
traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the
Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps of cuts priced in last month.
"Markets were positioned for Fed cuts this year but the
runway to justify Fed cuts is no longer there with the U.S.
excursion into Iran," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates
strategist at TD Securities. "The markets are recalibrating for
a higher terminal rate."
The selloff in global stocks and bonds shows no signs of
easing. U.S. stocks fell sharply overnight and the two-year
Treasury yields, which typically move in step with Fed interest
rate expectations, scaled a six-month high on Thursday.
"With the possibility of higher oil prices still elevated,
investors should be prepared for continued volatility and
potentially further downside in the near term," said Vasu Menon,
managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.
INFLATION WORRIES SWIRL
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said
the negative impact of rising oil prices on corporate margins,
inflation expectations, rate-cut prospects and yields is
sparking market volatility, leaving participants with few places
to hide.
"Indeed, sinking optimism about Fed rate reductions amid
strengthening cost pressures is weighing on traditional safe
havens such as silver, gold, and government debt."
The two-year note yield eased 3 bps to 3.730%
after hitting its highest level since August 22 on Thursday. The
yield has gained 35 bps in the two weeks since the war started.
The yield on the longer-dated 30-year bond has
risen 24 bps this month.
Investor focus will switch to a slate of policy meetings
next week with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central
Bank and the Bank of England all due to meet, with most expected
to keep rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia is
broadly expected to hike rates next week.
In currencies, the euro last fetched $1.1527, inching
higher on the day but still on course for a weekly decline of
nearly 1%. The dollar index was at 99.599, set for an
0.8% rise for the week.
The yen firmed a bit to 159.13 per dollar, hovering
around the 160 mark but the noise around possible intervention
has been fairly muted. Analysts said the bar for intervention
from Tokyo is higher due to the oil price shock.
"What was once a 'line in the sand' at 160 has evolved into
more of a moving goalpost," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst
at IG.
"Against such a hostile macro backdrop, it makes little
sense for authorities to waste precious intervention
ammunition-whether verbal or physical, trying to defend the
160ish level this time around."
Gold was 0.7% higher at $5,114 per ounce on Friday
but set for a 1% drop for the week.