* Trump tells aides he is willing to end Iran war without
reopening Hormuz - WSJ
* U.S., European futures turn higher; Asia shares
struggle
* Oil prices retreat but still set for strong monthly
gains
(Updates to Asia afternoon)
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices were set for
a record monthly rise on Tuesday while Asian shares were headed
for their steepest fall in six years, capping a tumultuous month
as the war in the Middle East stoked fears of higher inflation
and slower growth.
Bonds were headed for their largest decline in months, owing
to the hawkish sea change in the global outlook for interest
rates, while the dollar was on the cusp of its strongest gain in
eight months.
A month into the war, investors continue to be whipsawed by
a barrage of headlines as tensions and attacks between the U.S.,
Israel and Iran escalate.
"It appears markets have gone from just mechanically trading
headlines ... into a little bit more of a fear mode, taking risk
off the table," said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro
research for Asia ex-Japan.
"That partly might have to do with the transition from
earlier thinking that there's a good chance of Trump being able
to control the timeline and/or your TACO trade, to now beginning
to be concerned or fearing a more prolonged conflict."
Markets turned a little more upbeat after The Wall Street
Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he
is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the
Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
Nasdaq futures were up 0.73% and S&P 500 futures
rose 0.84%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures advanced 0.35%,
while DAX futures gained 0.48%.
Brent crude futures pared gains and were last up
0.24% at $113.05 a barrel, on track for a 56% rise this month,
the largest on record.
U.S. crude was little changed at $102.98 a barrel,
though it was still headed for a monthly rise of roughly 54%,
the most in nearly six years.
"I think inflation will be the bigger near-term concern for
global markets," said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for
Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
"But if oil prices don't fall back over the next few months,
we will probably have to start thinking about growth too."
The higher-for-longer energy prices have meant more pain for
Asia, which is highly reliant on energy from the Middle East.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
was down 1.43%, on track for a monthly fall of
more than 13%, the most substantial decline since March 2020.
Japan's Nikkei was down 1.27% and set to lose nearly
13% this month, while South Korea's Kospi was headed for
a monthly decline of more than 18%, the most since 2008.
BONDS UNDER WATER, DOLLAR IS KING
The threat of inflation has led investors to ramp up
expectations for rate hikes across major central banks this
year, which in turn hammered bonds.
The Federal Reserve is now expected to keep rates on hold
this year, compared with more than 50 basis points
worth of easing priced in prior to the start of the war.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the U.S. central bank
can wait to see how the Iran war affects the economy and
inflation, noting that policymakers typically look through
shocks such as those from higher oil prices.
U.S. Treasury yields steadied on Tuesday, though the
two-year yield was set to rise more than 40 bps for
the month, its largest increase since October 2024.
The benchmark 10-year yield has similarly
advanced about 36 bps in March, its largest monthly rise since
December 2024.
In currencies, the dollar was headed for its biggest monthly
gain since July, having emerged as one of the few safe-haven
assets amid the war.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback was set
to rise roughly 2.9% this month. The euro, which last
bought $1.1469, was headed for a nearly 3% monthly loss while
sterling was down more than 2% in March.
The yen remained a whisker away from the 160 per
dollar level and last stood at 159.63.
Asian currencies have come under heavy selling amid the war,
putting them among the largest losers globally. India's rupee,
Indonesia's rupiah and the Philippine peso have been pulled to
record lows against the dollar this month.
"For the long Asian currencies positions, we have closed
them out," said Ang Ze Yi, an Asian fixed income senior
portfolio manager at AllianzGI. "We still like them on a
structural basis, but for now, we have neutralised and we just
want to let the volatility and uncertainty die down first,
before we put those positions back on."
In precious metals, spot gold was up 1.2% at
$4,564.73 an ounce.