(Adds byline, dateline, comment in paragraphs 4-6, 10-11;
updates prices at 11:25 a.m. ET (1525 GMT)
By Herbert Lash and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - A gauge of global
equity markets closed in on a record high on Friday in
anticipation of central bank interest rate cuts and strong
corporate earnings, while the dollar rose despite signs of
slowing U.S. economic growth.
European shares were set to post their biggest weekly gain
since late January, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 index
headed to its sixth straight session of gains, while
the Dow industrials were on track to register eight daily
advances in a row as early gains on Wall Street turned mixed.
The strong performance on either side of the Atlantic pushed
MSCI's all-country world index toward a record
closing high.
Driving Wall Street higher are better-than-expected U.S.
corporate results and the potential for the Federal Reserve to
cut interest rates this year, said Thomas Hayes, chairman and
managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
"Higher jobless claims than expected yesterday put the Fed
on its back foot. The Fed not only is watching inflation, but if
they saw some weakening in the jobs market that would
potentially be cause to move ahead with cuts," he said.
"There's still the likelihood we're going to see one or two
this year."
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe
gained 0.28%, while Europe's STOXX 600 index rose
0.73%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.18%, the
S&P 500 gained 0.07% and the Nasdaq Composite
dropped 0.09%.
The dollar pared initial declines and turned modestly higher
as investors assessed a reading on U.S. consumer sentiment and
sifted through a flurry of comments from Fed officials.
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer
sentiment came in at 67.4 for May, a six-month low and below the
76.0 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. In addition, the
one-year inflation expectation climbed to 3.5% from 3.2%.
"The U.S. exceptionalism trade is fading. We did see a
decline yesterday based on the higher-than-expected rise in
jobless claims," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at
Corpay in Toronto.
"The underlying trend here does it does look as if the
dollar's essentially peaking here and then it might decline."
The dollar index rose 0.11%, with the euro
down 0.13% to $1.0767 as the yen headed toward its fourth
decline of the week, weakening 0.26% to 155.86 per dollar.
The pound was poised for a modest weekly loss after the Bank
of England (BoE) on Thursday paved the way for the start of rate
cuts as soon as next month and data showed the British economy
exited a mild recession in the first quarter of this year.
INFLATION AHEAD
Markets await both next week's producer price index and the
consumer price index for signs that U.S. inflation has resumed
its downward trend towards the Fed's 2% target rate.
Hotter-than-expected inflation reports last month had
quashed any lingering expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts.
Markets are now fully pricing in a cut only in November though
there is still a chance of the Fed moving in September.
In contrast, markets now imply a 50-50 chance of a BoE cut
in June and are almost fully priced for August. They also imply
an 88% chance the European Central Bank will ease in June.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said there could be more
reductions than investors expect, the latest sign of the growing
divergence between the Europe and U.S. rate outlooks.
Sterling slid 0.10% at $1.2512, having touched a
more than two-week low of $1.2446 on Thursday.
Traders currently anticipate roughly 45 basis points of cuts
this year from the Fed. In comparison, traders are pricing in 58
bps of easing from the BoE this year, while anticipating 70 bps
of cuts from the ECB.
Treasury yields rose with no major catalysts to drive
direction as traders waited on key inflation data for April next
week to guide expectations of Federal Reserve policy.
Yields hit one-month lows last week after a
softer-than-expected employment report for April re-ignited bets
that the U.S. central bank will make two 25 basis point interest
rate cuts this year.
The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects
interest rate expectations, rose 4.8 basis points to 4.855%,
while the yield on the benchmark 10-year note was up
4.9 basis points at 4.498%.
Global benchmark Brent hovered above $84 a barrel after data
this week signaled growing demand in the U.S. and China, the
world's two largest crude consumers, while festering conflict in
the Middle East also provided support.
U.S. crude recently fell 0.04% to $79.23 per barrel
and Brent was at $83.73, down 0.18% on the day.
Spot gold added 0.8% to $2,363.97 an ounce.