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GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold shines as rate cuts beckon, Trump talk hits Taiwan stocks
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold shines as rate cuts beckon, Trump talk hits Taiwan stocks
Jul 16, 2024 11:35 PM

(Updates prices)

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, July 17 (Reuters) - Gold hit a record and

bonds rallied on Wednesday as markets prepared for global

interest rates to fall, while stocks in Taiwan slipped after

U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump sounded lukewarm in his

commitment to the island's defence.

Sterling ticked higher after British inflation held

at 2% year-on-year in June against forecasts for 1.9%, with

services inflation stuck at an uncomfortable 5.7%.

FTSE futures rose 0.2% and S&P 500 futures

traded 0.2% lower after the cash index made a

record high on Wednesday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

was flat and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.4%.

In Taiwan, chipmaker TSMC fell 3%, wiping out

close to $30 billion in market value, after Trump questioned

U.S. support in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, saying

Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection.

It was unclear exactly what Trump was planning, however his

selection of trade hawk J.D. Vance as his running mate had

already put markets on notice that China will figure heavily in

his foreign policy thinking.

Chinese stocks were subdued for a second day running.

The Taiwan dollar slipped slightly to a two-week

low. China's yuan steadied at 7.2673 per dollar as

markets waited on news from a leadership meeting in Beijing

which ends on Thursday.

"It is more and more clear to me that Trump should be

bullish for USD for at least a while," said Brent Donnelly,

president at analytics firm Spectra Markets, as he is expected

to impose tariffs and run a higher budget deficit.

"It's hard to imagine USDCNH ending 2024 below 7.25 on a

Trump victory in November but it's not hard to imagine it

closing above 7.50," he said, referring to the dollar-yuan pair.

Elsewhere in the technology sector ASML, the

largest equipment supplier to chipmakers, reported

better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and shares were

indicated as opening higher.

GOLD GLITTERS

In Asia, New Zealand shares hit their highest since

March 2022 after data showed inflation slowing, though the rates

market dipped and the currency rose on sticky

domestically driven inflation.

Treasuries held gains that had pushed 10-year U.S. yields to

four-month lows overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome

Powell said recent cooling in inflation readings "add somewhat

to confidence" that consumer prices are coming under control.

Fed funds futures have fully priced a U.S. rate cut

for September, followed by two more before the end of January

2025.

Ten-year yields were steady at 4.167% and

two-year yields hovered at 4.44%. Bond markets in

Australia, Japan and South Korea rallied.

Lower yields helped propel gold sharply higher and

through chart resistance around $2,450 per ounce despite a

broadly firm dollar. It touched a record $2,482 in Asia trade on

Wednesday.

"Gold's ability to find support in any condition this year

is worth highlighting," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia

commodity strategist Vivek Dhar.

"While we think gold prices face uncertainty in coming

months, we think the uncertainty has a positive skew, raising

the risk that gold rises above our forecast of $2,500/oz by the

end of the year."

The Japanese yen was steady at 157.9, well off a

38-year low of 161.96 touched earlier in July after a few rounds

of suspected intervention from Japan late last week.

The euro was steady at $1.0905.

Oil prices slipped slightly, weighed by signs of weakening

demand from China.

Brent crude futures fell nine cents to $83.64 a

barrel and U.S. crude futures were seven cents lower at

$80.69 a barrel.

(Editing by Sam Holmes and Kim Coghill)

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