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GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil extends fall, stocks steady as traders wait on Warsh
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil extends fall, stocks steady as traders wait on Warsh
Jun 16, 2026 10:46 PM

* Warsh to navigate between dovish Trump and hawkish pricing

* Dollar steady; stocks sideways as semi selling subsides

* Asia yields track Treasuries lower on oil price relief

(Updates prices)

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, June 17 (Reuters) - Sinking crude prices on news

that Iranian fuel may soon hit global markets heralded inflation

relief and pushed bond yields lower on Wednesday, while stocks

and currencies were quieter ahead of Kevin Warsh's debut meeting

as Federal Reserve chair.

Brent crude futures have dived below $80 and are

down more than one-third from peaks after reports the U.S. will

waive sanctions on Iranian oil, under the deal to end the war.

The prospect of extra supply added to optimism on the

resumption of Mideast exports and helped push yields on U.S.

Treasuries lower along with a rally in global bonds, even as the

conflict has drained strategic oil reserves.

"Iran's total exports could approach around the equivalent

of 2% of global demand," said Luka Belobrajdic, an economist at

Westpac, though he cautioned any sanctions relief is unlikely to

be immediate and would depend on the durability of peace.

Ten-year Japanese yields fell four basis points

to 2.61% and 10-year Australian yields almost 6 bps to 4.78%.

Few details of the U.S.-Iran agreement, due to be signed on

Friday, have been publicly confirmed and a three-month

stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz has U.S. oil reserves at

their lowest since 1983.

Wall Street futures were slightly higher in Asia

trade, while FTSE futures and European futures

slipped 0.2%.

Chipmaker-heavy markets in Tokyo and South Korea

shrugged off a negative lead from U.S. selling in

semiconductor shares overnight, though a 1.7% fall for Taiwan's

TSMC dragged Taiwan's benchmark 1% lower.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

was broadly flat and in China, AI gains offset

sagging consumer stocks in the wake of weak retail sales data.

FED ON HOLD, WARSH IN FOCUS

Traders are waiting to see how Warsh walks the line between

his dovish president and markets, which expect a hike this year,

and the anticipation has broadly held the dollar in stasis.

The euro has firmed only a little this week, to hover

around $1.16. Tuesday's expected rate hike in Japan failed to

lift the yen, though the downside was protected by the risk of

official intervention, holding it at 160.3 to the dollar.

A change in the Fed funds rate is unlikely so the focus is

on the press conference, Warsh's vote and committee members'

projections, which in March showed most expected to cut rates.

"We expect Warsh to downplay forward guidance, instead

advocating patience on policy rates and inflation - leaning

dovish relative to market pricing," said Xiao Cui, senior

economist at Pictet Wealth Management.

"If Warsh embraces the possibility of rate hikes and does

not push back on market pricing, this could be interpreted as

hawkish."

Sweden's Riksbank is likely to stay on hold but forecast a

hike, while British inflation is seen accelerating to an annual

rate of 3% supported by higher oil prices.

Gold, down more than 20% from January peaks, has

bounced strongly from support around $4,000 an ounce and bought

$4,300 an ounce on Wednesday, and bitcoin has likewise

found support above $64,000 and traded just shy of $65,900.

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