(Updated at 4:07 p.m. ET (2007 GMT))
* Gulf peace talks uncertain as US builds up troops
* European stocks end higher after Asia declines
* Brent crude extends gains
* Aluminium near four-year highs after strikes on
producers
By Chris Prentice and Iain Withers
NEW YORK/LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Benchmark oil
prices extended gains toward their largest ever monthly increase
on Monday, as major Wall Street indexes were mixed in choppy
trade and investors focused on the war on Iran that they fear
will drive inflation and raise the risk of recession across the
globe.
U.S. Treasury prices rose, with yields declining across the
curve as mounting global growth concerns eclipsed inflation
worries. Investors are increasingly uneasy about a war entering
its fifth week with no clear path to resolution.
Trump said the U.S. was in serious discussions with a "more
reasonable regime" to end the war that has widened since it
began a month ago with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
But he repeated his warning to Iran to open the Strait of
Hormuz or risk U.S. attacks on Iranian oil wells and power
plants.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central
bank can wait to see how the Iran war affects the economy and
inflation, noting policymakers typically look through shocks
such as those from higher oil prices.
Data showed inflation in Germany, the euro zone's largest
economy, gathered pace in March due to surging energy prices.
Economists see further increases ahead.
CRUDE PRICES KEEP RISING
Brent crude futures settled up 0.2% at $112.78 per
barrel, as U.S. crude surged 3.3% to $102.88.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
0.11% to 45,216.14. The S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 6,343.72
and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.73% to 20,794.64.
The pan-European STOXX 600 reversed early losses to
advance and Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index also
rose.
"Oil is the lightning rod right now," said Eren Osman,
managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham,
adding a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the key to
calming world markets.
"The biggest challenge for us as investors today is that
you've got one of the widest ranges of potential outcomes," he
said, adding he did not expect a prolonged conflict as he
believed Trump had a "pain threshold" for market losses.
Madison Cartwright, senior geoeconomics analyst at
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Iran's control of the
Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about a fifth of the world's oil
and liquefied natural gas, nonetheless gave it little incentive
to concede, and the bank expected the war to run until at least
June.
The clampdown on the Strait has sent prices for oil, gas,
fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for
planes and shipping. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals and
petrochemical products are all set to rise.
Aluminium prices surged near four-year highs after Iranian
airstrikes on two major Middle Eastern producers over the
weekend.
That is particularly bad news for Asia. MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
closed lower by 1.96% and Japan's Nikkei fell 2.79%.
"A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an
additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising
towards $150 a barrel and constraints on industrial consumers of
energy supply," said Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at
JPMorgan.
FED IN FOCUS AS PAYROLLS LOOM
Data on U.S. retail sales, manufacturing and payrolls this
week will provide an update on how the economy is faring.
The energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal budgets
from higher borrowing costs and the need for more defence
spending, has hit sovereign bond markets.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
for the first time in three days, down 9.2 basis points to
4.348%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves
in step with Fed interest rate expectations, fell 8.2 basis
points to 3.834%.
Heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the
U.S. dollar as the world's most liquid currency. The U.S. is
also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over
Europe and much of Asia.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a
basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.2%
to 100.51.
After more warnings of possible intervention from the
Japanese authorities, the yen strengthened 0.39% to 159.69
against the dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.49% to $4,514.34 an ounce, and
futures settled 0.7% higher at $4,557.50.