SINGAPORE, March 25 (Reuters) - Stocks rose and oil fell
on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long
ceasefire in its war on Iran, and had sent a 15-point plan to
Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil
exports out of the Persian Gulf.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% in the Asia morning,
European futures lifted 1.2% and Brent crude futures
fell about 6% to $98.30 a barrel.
Equity markets in Australia, South Korea and
Japan rose roughly 2% in morning trade and gold,
which investors had been selling to take profit after a long
rally, rose 1.6%.
"The market is trading the headlines at the moment," said
Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset
Management in Melbourne.
"So there's a positive tone. The difficulty is now...there
are still unknowns about where this actually goes from here and
whether there's anything material in terms of a ceasefire."
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was
making progress in negotiating an end to the war, including
winning an important concession from Tehran, while a source
confirmed that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point settlement
proposal.
Israel's Channel 12, quoting three sources, said the U.S.
was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
Tehran has denied that direct talks have taken place.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Markets have responded well, though cautiously, to rumblings
since Monday that the U.S. is looking for an end to hostilities,
since it is not really clear if there is much progress on when
the Strait of Hormuz can open to oil tankers.
So far this week the dollar is marginally lower - and it was
under slight pressure on Wednesday morning - buying 158.8 yen
and trading at $1.1620 per euro.
Brent crude prices remain up 35% since the war began and
near the $100 a barrel level that's already causing economic
pain for buyers in Asia who are paying up for jet fuel and
diesel.
Interest rate markets have also stuck with expectations of
fairly extreme responses from central bankers, pricing a series
of hikes in Europe, Britain, Japan and Australia in the coming
months to tame inflation, and no further U.S. rate cuts.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped around
five basis points to 4.34% in Tokyo trade and two-year yields
fell by a similar margin to 3.875%.
Yields fall when bond prices rise.
LIGHT POSITIONING
"For now, it feels like a market that is reacting rather
than anticipating, and until there is clearer alignment from
both sides, I would expect price action to remain fragile," said
Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in
Singapore.
"People are reluctant to chase moves that are entirely
headline-driven and can reverse quickly."
On the ground U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes have
continued and sources said Washington was preparing to send more
troops to the region.
Two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday
that the U.S. was expected to send thousands of soldiers from
the Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
The Australian dollar hung around 70 U.S. cents after
February inflation data - from before the outbreak of war - was
a tad cooler than expected.
War worries have also obscured growing concerns in credit
markets where there are signs of stress in private credit and
Ares Management ( ARES ) on Tuesday became the latest asset manager to
cap withdrawals at a private debt fund, spooking investors.
Shares of Ares, which managed roughly $623 billion
in assets at the end of 2025, fell 1% on Tuesday. They are down
36% so far this year.