* S&P 500 and EU stocks pare losses, Nikkei bounces
* Brent eases as Iran says progress made in peace talks
* Treasury yields up, Fed futures wager on September hike
* Sterling soft on reports UK PM Starmer may resign
(Recasts with news on Swiss talks)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, June 22 (Reuters) - Asian share markets swung higher
on Monday as Iranian negotiators said progress had been made in
peace talks with the United States, helping calm fears the
process was breaking down.
Officials from Qatar and Pakistan also released a statement
saying the first session of talks had concluded and progress was
made on a roadmap to reach a final deal in 60 days.
Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened fresh
attacks on Iran as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials
for the first talks under an interim peace deal.
The talks had been overshadowed by Tehran's announcement it
had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, with tracking sites
showing fewer vessels transiting after 32 ships made the passage
on Friday and 26 on Saturday.
The news saw Brent crude futures shed early gains to
ease 0.4% to $80.17 a barrel, far away from its May peak of
$126.41. U.S. crude remained 1.2% firmer at $77.52 a
barrel.
Japan's Nikkei rose 1.9%, having climbed almost 8%
last week to all-time highs. South Korea's red-hot market added
another 2.6%, after surging more than 11% last week on
demand for semiconductor stocks.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
gained 1.0%, while Chinese blue chips
were flat.
S&P 500 futures pared early losses to be off 0.2%,
while Nasdaq futures lost 0.3%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50
futures edged down 0.1%, while DAX futures were
near flat and FTSE futures added 0.1%.
MARKET NARROWS ODDS ON FED HIKE
Treasuries remained under pressure following a hawkish turn
by the Federal Reserve last week that led markets to price in a
75% chance of a rate hike as early as September.
Futures imply 38 basis points of tightening by year-end,
while yields on 2-year notes rose as much as 4
basis points to the highest since early 2025 at 4.2276%.
"Our baseline call is for patience and a first hike in the
second half of 2027, but believe the margin for error and the
tolerance for further inflation is limited, with genuine risks
of earlier hikes," said Fabio Bassi, head of cross-asset
strategy at JPMorgan.
"We remain constructive on risk assets as improving labour
markets will keep rates higher for longer, supporting a narrow
leadership in Quality Growth, Large Cap and Tech," he added. "We
see upside risks for the S&P target tilted towards 8,000."
The Fed's favoured gauge of core inflation is due on
Thursday and is forecast to rise a tick to 3.4% in May,
underlining the risk of tighter policy.
Central bank speakers include Governor Christopher Waller
and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams.
The Fed's hawkish outlook kept the dollar supported at
161.48 yen, with only the threat of Japanese
intervention preventing a test of resistance at 161.96, a top
from mid-2024.
The euro eased to $1.1464, after hitting a
three-month low on Friday at $1.1418. Political uncertainty
nudged sterling down 0.2% to $1.3210.
Reports claimed Prime Minister Keir Starmer was considering
his political future, after rival Andy Burnham's decisive
election victory to parliament prompted more ministers in the
governing Labour Party to call for him to go.
"Amid the uncertainty around a potential challenge against
the UK PM and what that means for the fiscal outlook, the
likelihood is that gilts will remain under selling pressure to
start the week," said Skye Masters, head of market research at
NAB.
In commodity markets, news of the progress in peace talks
helped gold bounce 1.1% to $4,205 an ounce.