* S&P 500 emini futures up 0.7%
* Brent crude futures fall 5%
* Yields lower, but not much
(Updates prices to Asia afternoon)
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, March 25 (Reuters) - Stocks rose and oil fell
on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long
ceasefire in its war on Iran and had sent a 15-point plan to
Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a breakthrough that could
help restore oil exports from the Gulf.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% through the Asia day, while
European futures lifted 1.2% and FTSE futures
rose 0.7% - all fairly modest moves reflecting investor caution.
Brent crude futures slid 5% to $99 a barrel.
Japanese stocks jumped 3%, while markets in
Australia and South Korea rose 2%, recouping
recent losses but not weeks of falls since war broke out.
"The market is trading the headlines at the moment," said
Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset
Management in Melbourne.
"So there's a positive tone. The difficulty is now...there
are still unknowns about where this actually goes from here and
whether there's anything material in terms of a ceasefire."
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was
making progress in negotiating an end to the war, including
winning an important concession from Tehran.
One source confirmed to Reuters that Washington had sent
Iran a 15-point settlement proposal and Israel's Channel 12,
quoting sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long
ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
Tehran has denied that direct talks have taken place and on
Wednesday the official IRNA news agency quoted an armed forces
spokesperson as saying the U.S. is "negotiating with itself".
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Lack of clarity over whether or when oil exports out of the
Persian Gulf can resume, as well as signs there's already
economic harm being done by spiking oil prices, have tempered
markets' reaction so far to Trump's conciliatory moves.
Brent crude prices remain up 35% since the war began and
near the $100 a barrel level. The dollar is only marginally
lower this week, and steadied in Asia trade on Wednesday buying
158.9 yen and trading at $1.1594 per euro.
Interest rate markets have also stuck with expectations of
fairly extreme responses from central bankers, pricing a series
of hikes in Europe, Britain, Japan and Australia in the coming
months to tame inflation, and no further U.S. rate cuts.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped around
4.4 basis points to 4.35% in Tokyo trade and two-year yields
fell slightly further to 3.87%.
"For now, it feels like a market that is reacting rather
than anticipating, and until there is clearer alignment from
both sides, I would expect price action to remain fragile," said
Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in
Singapore.
"People are reluctant to chase moves that are entirely
headline-driven and can reverse quickly."
War worries have also obscured growing concerns in credit
markets where there are signs of stress in private credit and
Ares Management ( ARES ) on Tuesday became the latest asset manager to
cap withdrawals at a private debt fund, spooking investors.
Shares of Ares, which managed roughly $623 billion
in assets at the end of 2025, fell 1% on Tuesday. They are down
36% so far this year.