* Nikkei futures slide, S&P futures extend fall
* Brent crude up 59% in March, biggest monthly rise ever
* Gulf peace talks uncertain as US builds up troops
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, March 30 (Reuters) - Stock futures slid in Asia
on Monday as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict
that already has oil prices heading for a record monthly rise,
bringing a spike in inflation and the risk of recession to much
of the globe.
Pakistan said on Sunday it was preparing to host "meaningful
talks" to end the conflict over Iran in coming days even though
Tehran earlier accused Washington of preparing a land assault as
the U.S. military sends more troops to the region.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis also launched their first
attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict.
"Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, capacity to disrupt
global energy and food markets, and sustained missile and drone
capabilities give it little incentive to concede, pressuring the
U.S. to escalate," said Madison Cartwright, senior geo-economics
analyst at CBA.
"We expect the war to run at least into June, with the risk
tilted to a longer conflict."
The clampdown on the Strait has sent prices for oil, gas,
fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for
planes and shipping. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals and
petrochemical products are all set to rise.
That is bad news for Asia, as much of the region is highly
dependent on energy from the Middle East. Futures for Japan's
Nikkei were trading down at 50,870, pointing to a steep
fall from Friday's close of 53,373.
S&P 500 futures lost another 0.6%, while Nasdaq
futures fell 0.7%.
Brent crude rose 2.4% to $115.33 a barrel, bringing
its gains for the month to 59% and topping the jump that
followed Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude
climbed 3.0% to $102.52, making a monthly rise of 53%.
"The longer the Strait remains closed, the sharper the
drawdown in buffer supplies that could spark dramatic increases
in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities,"
warned Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan.
"A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an
additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising
towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of
energy supply."
FED IN FOCUS AS PAYROLLS LOOM
The inflationary threat has led investors to revise up the
outlook for interest rates almost everywhere. Markets now imply
12 basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve this year,
compared with 50 basis points of cuts a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance to air his own
views at an event later on Monday, and the influential head of
the New York Fed, John Williams, is also talking.
Data on U.S. retail sales, manufacturing and payrolls this
week will provide an update on how the economy is travelling.
Jobs are seen rising 55,000 in March, after February's shock
92,000 drop, keeping unemployment at 4.4%.
In the European Union, figures on Tuesday are forecast to
show annual inflation leaped to 2.7% in March, from 1.9% the
month before, though core prices should be steadier.
The coming energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal
budgets from higher borrowing costs and the need for more
defence spending, has slugged sovereign bond markets.
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are up roughly
47 basis points for the month so far at 4.428%, while two-year
yields have climbed 54 basis points.
Heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the
U.S. dollar as the world's most liquid currency. The United
States is also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative
advantage over Europe and much of Asia.
The dollar was trading a touch firmer early on Monday at
160.42 yen, having last week crossed the 160 barrier
for the first time since July 2024 when Japan last intervened to
prop up the currency.
The euro was stuck at $1.1492, not far from the
March trough of $1.1409.
In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $4,487 an
ounce, having drawn scant support as a safe haven or as a
hedge against inflation risks.