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China stimulus announcement expected Saturday
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Bets for quarter point Fed rate cut intact after jobless
claims
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Oil volatile amid hurricanes, Middle East tensions
(Updates prices)
By Naomi Rovnick and Stella Qiu
LONDON, SYDNEY Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global stocks traded
sideways on Friday as a stunning rally in Chinese shares paused
and investors held back from placing more bets ahead of a
much-anticipated update on fiscal stimulus from Beijing this
weekend.
European stock markets were steady, Wall Street futures
were also flat and MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended the week
with a loss after four straight weeks of gains.
The global stock index is near record highs
after a burst of late summer volatility sparked by fears of a
U.S. recession was eased by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut
of this cycle, where it cut borrowing costs by a jumbo 50 basis
points.
That first round of U.S. easing opened the door for China to
bring in monetary support measures without creating extra
pressure on the weakened renminbi.
Beijing's finance ministry has signalled it will announce a
significant fiscal stimulus at a press conference on Saturday.
Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said markets were
"laser-focused" on the outcome.
But, Lu added, the finance ministry might not be able to
detail plans for spending and bond issuance that would require
separate approval from the National People's Congress, Beijing's
top government body.
Beijing's next moves, which investors worldwide are counting
on to boost activity everywhere from Australia's iron ore mines
to luxury goods shops in London and Paris, could depend on
whether the Fed carries on with rate cuts.
Data showed core U.S. consumer prices rose by a
higher-than-expected 0.3% in September from August, signalling
the U.S. central bank might have applied a larger-than-necessary
dose of relief to an economy that is not ailing yet.
Money markets still put 80% odds on a 25 basis point rate
reduction on Nov. 7 however, after data on Thursday showed
weekly jobless claims had surged and the severe hurricanes
wreaking devastation across the U.S. also threatened the
economy.
OIL VOLATILE
The U.S. dollar, steady on Friday, hit two-month
highs overnight as money market traders dropped all their bets
for another half-point rate cut.
"A significant portion of the recent gains in equities can be
attributed to the dual tailwinds of lower interest rates and
economic stimulus from China," Lombard Odier Investment Managers
head of macro Florian Ielpo said.
"However, with inflation proving stickier than expected,
(U.S.) interest rates might face temporary upward pressure."
The yield on the interest rate-sensitive two-year
U.S.Treasury has risen for two consecutive weeks as
the price of the government debt instrument fell, although it
edged 3 bps lower on Friday to 3.7943%.
The benchmark 10-year yield fell 2 bps to 4.073%
but remains far above its level of about 3.6% in early
September.
In Europe on Friday, the Stoxx 600 share index
traded flat, still near its 52-week high as investors focused
more on prospective European Central Bank monetary easing than
an economic slowdown across the currency bloc.
With the ECB widely expected to cut its deposit rate again
next week for the second month in a row as inflation has
stalled, Germany's 10-year Bund, steady at 2.26% on
Friday, has dropped far below the 3.5% euro zone deposit rate.
Elsewhere in markets, Brent crude oil dropped 1.2% to 78.45
a barrel,, having jumped about 4% overnight as Hurricane
Milton drove a spike in U.S. fuel use and Middle East supply
risks remained high.
Gold was last up 0.6% at $2,644.69 an ounce.