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Stocks fall ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy decision
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Germany's Merz unexpectedly fails to be elected chancellor
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Investors await trade deals between US and partners
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Asian FX in the spotlight after Taiwan dollar's surge
By Samuel Indyk and Ankur Banerjee
LONDON, May 6 (Reuters) - Global stocks dropped on
Tuesday as concerns about tariffs and their impact on the
economy lingered and as German conservative leader Friedrich
Merz unexpectedly failed to secure the parliamentary votes
required to become chancellor.
Markets were processing the surprise from the Bundestag
where Merz failed to garner the votes required, dealing a major
blow to his proposed government that has promised to revive
economic growth at a time of global uncertainty.
"I didn't expect what happened today to have happened at
all," said George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars.
"Markets are going to be extremely negatively surprised if
Merz fails to be elected as chancellor and Germany falls into
disarray."
Merz now has 14 days to try and win parliamentary support,
and while this is not seen as a fatal setback, his failure to
win parliamentary backing at the first time is a first for
post-war Germany.
Germany's DAX fell by as much as 2% but was last
down about 1.3%. Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.3%.
Investor attention remains on the possibility of easing
trade tensions between the U.S. and China after Beijing last
week said it was evaluating an offer from Washington to hold
talks over tariffs.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Washington
is meeting with many countries, including China, and that his
main priority with China is to secure a fair deal.
"We've seen a backpedalling and the trade risk has become
lower," said Lars Skovgaard, senior investment strategist at
Danske Bank.
But with few details coming out about trade discussions,
investors have been left trying to make sense of headlines
coming out of the White House.
"Now we need to see some deals being announced otherwise the
rise in stocks will fade again," Skovgaard added.
Europe's STOXX 600 was down 0.7% on Tuesday but
remains close to its closing level on April 2, the day Trump
announced his tariff proposals.
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan, was down 0.1% with Japan closed
for a holiday.
Chinese markets returned from an extended holiday with the
blue-chip index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both
up about 1%.
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on
Tuesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates
steady but the spotlight will be on how policymakers are likely
to navigate a tariff-ridden path.
"The Fed remains caught between a rock and a hard place,"
said Christian Scherrmann, DWS chief U.S. economist. "We think
they will opt for a slightly more hawkish tone, but more in the
direction of an extended pause than a potential hike."
Traders are pricing in 75 basis points of easing this year
with the first move possible in July, LSEG data showed.
U.S. stock futures were falling on Tuesday, with S&P futures
down 0.7%.
DOLLAR SLIPS, RISES VS ASIAN FX
Trump's erratic trade policies have fuelled significant
waves of dollar selling since April as investors shifted away
from U.S. assets, pushing the euro, yen and Swiss franc higher.
The euro on Tuesday was little changed against the dollar
at $1.1315, trimming an earlier rise after Germany's
parliamentary vote. The yen was up 0.3% at 143.24 per dollar
.
The dollar selling has spread to other Asian FX, underscored
by the Taiwan dollar's record surge in recent sessions,
which has stoked speculation that a revaluation of regional
foreign exchange was possible to win U.S. trade concessions.
The Taiwan dollar was fairly sedate on Tuesday last fetching
30.28 per U.S. dollar, not far from the near three-year high of
29.59 it touched on Monday.
The focus has turned to Hong Kong, where the de facto
central bank bought $7.8 billion to stop the local currency from
strengthening and breaking its peg to the greenback.
"If these currencies keep strengthening sharply, it could
spark fears of a 'reverse Asian currency crisis', with potential
ripple effects in the bond market amid fears that Asian
institutions reassess their unhedged exposure to Treasury
holdings," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at
Saxo.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on Tuesday it has been
diversifying currency exposure in its investment portfolio to
manage risks.
On the mainland, China's yuan strengthened to its
highest level since November at 7.2105 per dollar.
In commodities, oil rose after hitting four-year lows in the
previous session that was driven by an OPEC+ decision to
accelerate output increases. Brent crude futures were
last up 2.7% at $61.87 per barrel.
Gold prices rose 1.4% to a two-week high of $3,386/oz on
safe-haven demand.
(Editing by Kate Mayberry, Sharon Singleton and David Evans)