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Dollar stable, bond prices ease after Trump attack

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PredictIT shows increased chance of Republican win

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China economic data misses expectations

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Fed's Powell talks later Monday, markets bet on Sept cut

(Updates throughout; refreshes prices at 0838 GMT)

By Iain Withers and Wayne Cole

LONDON/SYDNEY, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar held

steady on Monday, while long-dated U.S. bond yields rose, as

investors weighed whether an assassination attempt on

presidential candidate Donald Trump increased his chances of

victory.

European stocks opened lower, after weak economic data from

China helped set a cautious tone, while dour updates from

British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised

questions about consumer confidence.

Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump

win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption

his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 67

cents, up from 60 cents on Friday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury

yields fell in price, which pushed the yield up 2 basis points

to 4.208% on Monday.

Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at

Arbuthnot Latham, said a likelier Trump victory would be seen as

a positive for risk assets, noting a strong rally for bitcoin

since the weekend, but added a word of caution.

"It would be reasonable to suggest it invigorates the Trump

supporters to go vote, but they were probably the population of

voters that were most likely to go and vote anyway," Osman said.

U.S. retail sales data due on Tuesday was likely to be

closely watched for clues on how consumers are faring, after

recent data showed slowing growth, he said.

The dollar index was modestly in positive territory at

104.9, supported by gains in the U.S. currency against the yen

, rising 0.17% to 157.855, following a bout of

suspected intervention last week.

The euro eased slightly to $1.0907, while bitcoin

- seen benefiting from lighter regulation under a Trump

administration - was up about 5% at a two-week high.

European stocks slipped 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures

and Nasdaq futures were both up about half a

percentage point. Japan's Nikkei market was shut for a holiday.

CHINA DATA MISSES

Disappointing economic data kicked off a busy week in China,

where a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from

July 15-18.

Second-quarter growth in the world's second-largest economy

was 4.7% higher than a year earlier, missing a 5.1% analyst

forecast.

Of particular concern was the consumer sector, with

retail sales growth grinding to an 18-month low, while new home

prices dropped at their fastest pace in nine years.

"Markets are hoping that more significant measures could be

announced during this week's plenary session to help the limping

economy and ailing property sector," said Vasu Menon, managing

director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

The onshore yuan was under pressure at 7.2742 per

dollar. Mainland stocks were broadly flat and Hong

Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.5%.

Later this week, the United States will release data on

retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly

jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear at the

Economic Club of Washington later on Monday and is bound to be

asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates

in September, up from 72% a week earlier.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is

considered near-certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another

cut seen likely in September.

Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are

Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley,

Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

In commodity markets, gold held at $2,408 an ounce,

just off last week's top of $2,424.

Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of

progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Brent was broadly flat at $85.04 a barrel, while

U.S. crude edged up 0.1% to $82.27 per barrel.