March 24 (Reuters) - Asian stocks have seen heavy
foreign outflows so far in March as disruptions to Middle East
energy supplyfrom the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stoked fears of
an oil shock and stagflation risks.
Foreign investors have sold a net $50.45 billion worth of
regional equities so far this month, on track for the largest
monthly outflows since at least 2008, LSEG data covering
exchanges in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, India, Indonesia,
Vietnam and the Philippines showed.
"Outflows from EM Asia markets were driven by the
broad-based risk-off sentiment due to the Middle East conflicts,
as most of EM Asia economies are net importers of energy
products," said Jason Lui, the head of APAC equity and
derivative strategy at BNP Paribas.
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices surged as much as
65% this month to $119.5 a barrel.
Abdelaziz Albogdady, a market research and fintech strategy
manager at brokerage FXEM, said that the outflows were
exacerbated by the ensuing rise in global yields and a
reassessment of rate expectations, in addition to the potential
economic impact on net oil importers.
Recent policy signals from major central banks indicate that
interest rates are likely to remain on hold or move higher if
the conflict continues to heap pressure on prices.
Taiwanese stocks have seen about $25.28 billion in outflows
month-to-date, the largest in at least 18 years, while South
Korea and India have recorded about $13.5 billion and $10.17
billion in net foreign sales, respectively.
"Outflows in Taiwan and South Korea were mostly focused on
AI/technology stocks given they have accumulated sizable gains
during the AI boom," BNP Paribas' Lui said.
Tech hardware stocks in Korea and China, however, remain
among the most promising segments, seeing limited immediate
direct impact from the Middle East conflict or higher energy
prices, analysts at Nomura said in a note on Monday.
Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam also recorded net
outflows of $1.35 billion, $182 million and $21 million,
respectively, while Indonesia attracted net inflows of $59
million over the same period.
Lui said EM Asia markets are likely to remain volatile in
the near-term amid contradictory headlines and elevated
geopolitical risks.
"Unlike the Liberation Day scenario during which the U.S.
can unilaterally decide on the tariff threshold, the current
energy shock may take longer to normalize given the disruption
to the production facilities in the Middle East."