June 14 (Reuters) - French stocks and the euro have
tumbled this week as political uncertainty in France and the
possibility of a far-right-dominated parliament spook investors,
while the gap between French and German government borrowing
costs has soared.
Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic National Rally is leading in
opinion polls following President Emmanuel Macron's surprise
decision at the weekend to call a snap vote, while France's
left-wing parties have formed a new alliance to fight the
election.
The worry for markets is that a far-right French prime
minister could pursue high-spending "France first" economic
policies, adding to the country's large debt pile. Some
investors have started to talk of the risk of the euro zone
breaking up, although that remains a way off.
Here are four charts showing how markets have been reacting.
French stocks have sold off hard. The blue-chip CAC 40 is at
its lowest since January, having shed 6% this week - its biggest
weekly drop in over two years.
"There's an element of 'shoot first, ask questions later'
with regards to France," said Tom O'Hara, a portfolio manager on
the European equities team at Janus Henderson Investors.
"We're focused on global companies that are listed in
Europe. Certainly, those that are more domestically exposed,
there are going be more question marks about."
Midcaps, which typically have more exposure to the
underlying national economy, are down 9%, the biggest weekly
drop since March 2020's pandemic turmoil.
Banks have been particularly hard hit. BNP Paribas
, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale
are all down over 10% this week, losing roughly $19
billion in market cap since Friday's close, based on LSEG data.
French government bonds are also under pressure.
The difference between French and German 10-year borrowing
costs rose to 78 basis points on Friday, the
highest since 2017 on an intraday basis and on track for a
closing level not seen since the euro zone crisis of 2012.
The spread reflects the premium investors demand to hold
French government bonds rather than German bonds, the euro zone
benchmark.
The wider spreads could provide a "tactical buying
opportunity," said analysts at UBS, "but we expect investors to
take a wait-and-see attitude until there is more clarity on
electoral alliances, as well as fiscal policies in the case of a
cohabitation - a situation where the prime minister and
president are from different parties."
It now costs the French government more to borrow money for
10 years than it does the Portuguese government for the first
time since at least 2005, according to LSEG Datastream
.
Spreads are also widening due to a general rush for safe
haven assets in Europe and that includes German government
bonds. The yield on German Bunds is down 24 bps and set for its
biggest weekly drop since December.
"It is going to be a long month for the euro," said Chris
Turner, global head of markets at ING.
The currency has dropped around 1% against the dollar,
British pound and Swiss franc this week alone, and is at its
lowest against the pound in almost two years.
Markets are braced for further sharp moves. One-month
options volatility for the euro against both the dollar and the
pound has jumped to its highest in over a year.
"With opinion polls taking such a toll on the euro and
presumably more polls due this weekend, we expect investors will
want to manage their euro exposure carefully," said Turner, who
reckons the euro could drop towards $1.06 next week, which would
be its lowest since November. It's currently at $1.0685.
The cost of insuring France's debt against default has also
rocketed.
France's five-year credit default swap widened to 36 basis
points (bps) on Friday, having been just 24 bps as of market
close on 7 June, a week before.
These levels are the highest since the pandemic, and prior
to that, since the 2017 presidential election, when markets
feared Le Pen might be elected France's president.