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GRAPHIC-Iran war splits global markets into clear winners and losers
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GRAPHIC-Iran war splits global markets into clear winners and losers
May 27, 2026 2:16 AM

* Iran war reaches three-month mark on May 28

* Oil, dollar, stocks all in winning camp

* Energy importers are big losers

* Bond yields higher on inflation angst

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Three months since the Iran

war began, persistently high oil prices have policymakers

grappling with renewed inflation fears, while sliding currencies

are a headache for some Asian countries.

But the conflict has boosted other assets, especially oil,

and the dollar's credentials as a safe-haven.

Here's a look at some stand-out winners and losers.

OIL'S WIDER IMPACT

Oil's roughly 40% jump has upended the outlook for

inflation and interest rates. On the physical market, crude

prices are well above $100 a barrel and, at one point in early

April, were nearly double what they were pre-war.

A record 400-million-barrel release from the strategic reserves

of major economies, together with traders finding alternative

sources, has helped cushion the loss of supply. But the strain

on the global energy system is growing.

AI BOOM CUSHIONS STOCKS

Global stocks have so far weathered the storm, as renewed AI

optimism and broader hopes for a peace deal overshadow the

negative impacts of the war.

U.S. stocks are at record highs, as is South Korea's Kospi.

European shares are nudging at all-time highs.

SK Hynix topped $1 trillion in market value for the

first time on Wednesday, joining its memory chip rivals Samsung

Electronics ( SSNLF ) and Micron Technology ( MU ) in reaching

the milestone on an AI-driven rally.

Not all sectors are winning.

The S&P 500 passenger airlines index is down more than 6% since

the conflict began amid global flight disruption. A global

luxury basket is down 10%, reflecting investor fears

that inflation could hit spending.

HSBC Private Bank global CIO Willem Sels said the firm has

an underweight position on consumer-related goods and services.

"It provides us with a hedge in case the conflict

accelerates," he said. "Consumption has done reasonably okay,

certainly in the U.S. where you have better-off households who

still consume a lot and are benefiting from AI."

DOLLAR KEEPS ITS CROWN

The dollar has also been a winner, with investors embracing its

safe-haven properties. It has gained 1.5% against other major

currencies since the war began, outperforming the Swiss

franc and yen.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields have also boosted the dollar's

appeal, while some note it continues to contend with U.S. policy

uncertainty and will likely weaken when the conflict ends.

"We are currently neutral but still expect a weaker dollar

in the medium term," said Van Luu, global head of solutions

strategy at Russell Investments.

ASIAN CURRENCIES FEEL THE PAIN

Asia had bought about ​80% of oil shipped through the

now-shuttered Strait of Hormuz and what fuel there is still

available is costlier than before. That is hurting growth and

making their currencies among the biggest underperformers since

the war.

India's rupee, Indonesia's rupiah and the Philippine peso have

hit record lows against the dollar and some countries have hiked

rates or tapped FX reserves to ease the pain.

Sri Lanka stunned markets on Tuesday with a 100 basis point

hike.

In Asia, only China's yuan has held up, helped by

substantial domestic energy reserves.

ANOTHER BLOW TO GLOBAL ECONOMY

The oil price surge has also knocked the world economy,

particularly countries that rely on imported energy.

In the euro zone, economic activity shrank at its sharpest rate

in more than two-and-a-half years in ​May, S&P's composite

purchasing managers index shows.

The war's impact is amplifying Europe's financial

vulnerabilities, the European Central Bank warned in a report on

Wednesday.

British companies also reported a drop in activity

alongside a jump in input prices due to higher energy costs.

The U.S., which is self-sufficient in oil and gas and where

AI investment is surging, has taken less of an economic hit.

However, the global nature of oil markets means U.S. gasoline

prices have hit a four-year high of $4.56 a gallon.

BONDS TAKE A BEATING

Government bonds are also in the losing camp, as the oil

price surge has prompted traders to factor in the risk of higher

rates in response to energy-driven inflation.

Expectations of higher fiscal and military spending have

added to pressure on longer-dated maturities.

The Federal Reserve might end its easing bias soon and U.S.

30-year Treasury yields have risen to their highest since 2007,

trading above 5%.

German Bund yields, meanwhile, have hit their

highest in over 15 years as traders price in at least two ECB

rate hikes by year-end.

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