Aug 7 (Reuters) - No time for a break. Even in the middle of
August, there is plenty of market news to watch.
There's possibly more U.S.-Japanese intervention to support
the yen, key economic data, and, whether the U.S. will accept an
emerging interim deal being negotiated by Iran and Oman that
would give Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Here's all you need to know about the coming week in
financial markets from Amanda Cooper, Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun
John in London, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Rae Wee in
Singapore.
1/ THE ANGEL FROM MY NIGHTMARE
A currency languishing at four-decade lows - making fuel
imports more expensive during an energy shock - is a nightmare
for any policymaker. Right now, that policymaker is in Japan.
Cue Scott Bessent and a well-timed photograph of the U.S.
Treasury Secretary's "to-do" list mentioning purchases of yen.
Coupled with a rare joint U.S.-Japanese intervention to stem yen
weakness, it may have eased Tokyo's concerns.
Job done? Not quite.
FX traders still have plenty of unanswered questions.
First, will policymakers signal that Japan's central bank is
preparing a September rate hike to reinforce the yen's rebound?
Then there is the bigger question over the use of euros rather
than dollars in the U.S. intervention.
Some analysts say that suggests the U.S. Treasury does not
want bond market strains worsened by foreign central banks
selling Treasuries to fund currency-support operations. The
debate over the resilience of the dollar's reserve-currency
status is far from over.
2/FUDGE IT
Investors are clutching at yet another deal to end the Gulf
conflict and ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
This time, the talks involve Iran and Oman, with no U.S.
involvement, or sign-off, so far.
But with the conflict entering its 24th week, expectations
that any agreement will hold remain modest. Yemen's Iran-backed
Houthi militias have attacked Saudi Arabia and targeted tankers
in the Red Sea, another key route for Gulf oil exports.
With less than five months until midterm elections, the U.S.
president wants a deal. Gas prices remain stubbornly above $4 a
gallon and, while inflation is not as bad as feared, it's a
problem with voters.
For now, optimism about earnings growth and the potential
for AI-driven productivity gains may calm investors and
encourage acceptance of a near-term fudge for the strait.
3/ SPOTLIGHT ON INFLATION
U.S. inflation data on Wednesday could add to growing
pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the July consumer price
index to rise 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, which excludes
volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to increase 2.5%
annually.
Producer price data due a day later will provide a fuller
picture of inflation. CPI and PPI figures in the previous month
were softer than expected, but inflation remains above the Fed's
2% target.
Retail sales data on August 14 cap a busy week for economic
releases.
The Fed held rates steady last month, but three policymakers
dissented in favour of a hike. Markets are pricing in roughly
even odds of a hike at the Fed's next meeting in September.
4/ TIGHTENING CYCLE OVER?
Things are different down under.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave rates
unchanged on Tuesday as policymakers assess whether the three
hikes delivered this year have done enough to tame inflation.
Recent data showed consumer prices rose at a slower pace in
the June quarter, a day after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said
the central bank stood ready to raise rates again if needed.
Analysts suspect the RBA to maintain a hawkish stance.
Also in the tightening camp, Norges Bank meets on Thursday
but is similarly expected to keep rates on hold, after Norway's
core inflation slowed in June.
5/ AN ECONOMIC BURNHAM BOUNCE?
New Prime Minister Andy Burnham will be hoping for good news
when Britain publishes GDP data on Thursday for both the second
quarter and June.
The monthly figures could see a bounce. June retail sales
were unexpectedly strong, helped by spending linked to the
soccer World Cup and hot weather.
Lower energy prices that month during the short-lived
U.S.-Iran deal could also have helped.
However, the quarterly figure could be less encouraging, as
strong growth in the first three months of the year fizzled out
in April and May.
Still, Burnham, who took power in July, will be hoping for a
surprise similar to that seen in the euro zone. Preliminary data
showed the bloc expanded faster than expected in the second
quarter. An updated euro zone estimate is also due Thursday.
(Graphics by Kripa Jayaram. Compiled by Alun John. Editing by
Mark Potter)