(Updates story first published on Friday, changes headline and
dateline, updates section 1 and 2)
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - From a focus on how quickly
tech-driven, frothy equity markets unwind, to the impact of the
U.S. shutdown, there's plenty to mull over next week.
And don't forget China data, UK budget speculation and a
U.N. climate change summit.
Here's all you need to know about the coming week in
financial markets by Rae Wee in Singapore, Alden Bentley in New
York and Amanda Cooper, Marc Jones and Libby George in London.
1/ BACK TO REALITY?
The week starts on an upbeat mood as the U.S. Senate on
Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal
government and ending a now 40-day shutdown that has sidelined
federal workers, delayed food aid and snarled air travel.
If an agreement is finalised, data must still be compiled
and rescheduled, meaning a scheduled inflation release on
Thursday is unlikely. So the data fog may continue for now.
The disruption since October 1 has surpassed the record
shutdown in Donald Trump's first term as president.
Relief may prove temporary, as the impact of the shutdown on
the economy emerges.
Others note that any agreement might be temporary, meaning
markets could be back to shutdown watch in the not too distant
future.
2/ LACKING DATA CHEER
As investors look past an uneasy Sino-U.S. trade truce, at
least until things turn sour again, focus returns to domestic
data for clues on how China will score on the 2025 economic
report card as the year nears a close.
Data on Sunday showed producer price deflation eased in
October and consumer prices returned to positive territory.
House prices and retail sales, among the slew of
Friday's data releases, are also unlikely to move the needle on
a bleak outlook.
China's exports unexpectedly fell in October, data last week
showed.
But markets are less sensitive to China's weak run of
economic data, with stocks still ripping higher, buoyed by the
nation's push for greater technological self-reliance and a
modern industrial system.
3/ A VERY BRITISH DATA MINEFIELD
UK investors are gearing up for a December rate cut from the
Bank of England.
But first, there's a forest of data to get through - much of
which will be key to BoE decision-making - before finance
minister Rachel Reeves reveals her budget on November 26.
Reeves paved the way for tax rises in a rare pre-budget
speech on Tuesday, although she did not indicate whether her
plan would break any manifesto pledges.
Sterling is at its weakest since 2023 against the euro
and at its lowest since April against the dollar
.
The coming week's numbers on consumer prices, wage inflation
and economic growth may set the tone for UK markets before that
key budget, while trade balance numbers may outline how much
Trump's tariffs have affected the UK/U.S. "special
relationship".
4/ EMERGING MARKETS: NOT GETTING TRUMPED?
Nigeria joined a list of emerging nations in Trump's
crosshairs after the U.S. president threatened military action
if the West African oil producer doesn't do more to protect its
Christians.
Investors barely registered the threat, and days later, a
Nigerian bond sale was oversubscribed.
A pattern of Trump threats over trade or other perceived
failures followed by a modest market reaction has played out in
Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and South Africa.
Trump's aid cuts have hurt vulnerable economies and his
trade policy puts hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk in
exporting nations.
But investors' risk-on mood, lower global borrowing costs, a
softer dollar and positive local growth and reform stories
suggest a strong anti-Trump buffer is in place. Even China is
luring cash.
Nigerian stocks dipped after Trump's Sunday salvo, but
emerging market equities broadly have notched returns of nearly
32% in dollar terms this year, an asset performance second only
to gold, according to BofA.
5/BAD COP
The COP30 global climate summit kicks off on Monday in
Belem, the Brazilian city symbolically chosen for its rainforest
location at the mouth of the Amazon.
It's shaping up to be a highly contentious few weeks. The
diminished set of leaders attending are bemoaning the fracturing
of global consensus on climate action, taking swipes at the
climate-change-denying U.S. government while trying to assure
the world they remain unswerving in their own commitments.
Whether the world buys that is another question. Even host
Brazil, trying to drum up $125 billion to protect world
rainforests, has just taken the highly controversial decision to
begin drilling for oil in the Amazon.
The gathering also marks three decades since global climate
negotiations began. Countries have curbed a climb in carbon
emissions somewhat, but not enough to prevent what scientists
consider extreme climate change in coming decades.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe, Graphics by Prinz Magtulis,
Editing by Sharon Singleton and Lincoln Feast.)