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GRAPHIC-Take five: Markets aren't going on a summer holiday
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GRAPHIC-Take five: Markets aren't going on a summer holiday
Aug 10, 2026 12:30 AM

(Adds BOJ minutes in section one and Friday payrolls data in

section three)

Aug 10 (Reuters) - No time for a break. Even in the middle

of August, there is plenty of market news to watch.

There's possibly more U.S.-Japanese intervention to support

the yen, key economic data, and, whether the U.S. will accept an

emerging interim deal being negotiated by Iran and Oman that

would give Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Here's all you need to know about the coming week in

financial markets, from Amanda Cooper, Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun

John in London, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Rae Wee in

Singapore.

1/ THE ANGEL FROM MY NIGHTMARE

A currency languishing at four-decade lows - making fuel

imports more expensive during an energy shock - is a nightmare

for any policymaker. Right now, that policymaker is in Japan.

Cue Scott Bessent and a well-timed photograph of the U.S.

Treasury Secretary's "to-do" list mentioning purchases of yen.

Coupled with a rare joint U.S.-Japanese intervention to stem yen

weakness, it may have eased Tokyo's concerns.

Job done? Not quite.

FX traders still have plenty of unanswered questions.

First, will policymakers signal that Japan's central bank is

preparing a September rate hike to reinforce the yen's rebound?

The minutes from its July meeting published on Monday

strengthened the case for a rate increase.

Then there is the bigger question over the use of euros rather

than dollars in the U.S. intervention.

Some analysts say that suggests the U.S. Treasury does not want

bond market strains worsened by foreign central banks selling

Treasuries to fund currency-support operations. The debate over

the resilience of the dollar's reserve-currency status is far

from over.

2/FUDGE IT

Investors are clutching at yet another deal to end the Gulf

conflict and ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

This time, the talks involve Iran and Oman, with no U.S.

involvement, or sign-off, so far.

But with the conflict entering its 24th week, expectations that

any agreement will hold remain modest. Yemen's Iran-backed

Houthi militias have attacked Saudi Arabia and targeted tankers

in the Red Sea, another key route for Gulf oil exports.

With less than five months until midterm elections, the U.S.

president wants a deal. Gas prices remain stubbornly above $4 a

gallon and, while inflation is not as bad as feared, it's a

problem with voters.

For now, optimism about earnings growth and the potential

for AI-driven productivity gains may calm investors and

encourage acceptance of a near-term fudge for the strait.

3/ SPOTLIGHT ON INFLATION

U.S. inflation data on Wednesday could leave the Federal Reserve

with a dilemma if a hot print comes on top of last week's data

showing unexpected job losses in July.

Until then, the Fed had been under growing pressure to raise

interest rates.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the July consumer price

index to rise 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, which excludes

volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to increase 2.5%

annually.

Producer price data due a day later will provide a fuller

picture of inflation. CPI and PPI figures in the previous month

were softer than expected, but inflation remains above the Fed's

2% target.

Retail sales data on August 14 cap a busy week for economic

releases.

The Fed held rates steady last month, but three policymakers

dissented in favour of a hike. Markets see around a 40% chance

of an increase at the Fed's next meeting in September, though

the data could shift those bets.

4/ TIGHTENING CYCLE OVER?

Things are different down under.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave rates

unchanged on Tuesday as policymakers assess whether the three

hikes delivered this year have done enough to tame inflation.

Recent data showed consumer prices rose at a slower pace in the

June quarter, a day after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the

central bank stood ready to raise rates again if needed.

Analysts suspect the RBA to maintain a hawkish stance.

Also in the tightening camp, Norges Bank meets on Thursday but

is similarly expected to keep rates on hold, after Norway's core

inflation slowed in June.

5/ AN ECONOMIC BURNHAM BOUNCE?

New Prime Minister Andy Burnham will be hoping for good news

when Britain publishes GDP data on Thursday for both the second

quarter and June.

The monthly figures could see a bounce. June retail sales were

unexpectedly strong, helped by spending linked to the soccer

World Cup and hot weather.

Lower energy prices that month during the short-lived

U.S.-Iran deal could also have helped.

However, the quarterly figure could be less encouraging, as

strong growth in the first three months of the year fizzled out

in April and May.

Still, Burnham, who took power in July, will be hoping for a

surprise similar to that seen in the euro zone. Preliminary data

showed the bloc expanded faster than expected in the second

quarter. An updated euro zone estimate is also due Thursday.

(Graphics by Kripa Jayaram; Compiled by Alun John; Editing by

Mark Potter and David Holmes)

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