NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Hedge funds' use of
leverage in equities trading is near record levels after
debt-fueled strategies ballooned in recent years and an upturn
in financial markets prompted riskier bets, according to two
banking sources and recent client notes from major banks.
Fresh data compiled by Goldman Sachs ( GS ), JPMorgan and Morgan
Stanley ( MS ), the three largest global prime brokerages, seen by
Reuters in notes distributed to a restricted group of clients,
show that leverage used to juice up returns is at or close to
historical highs, depending on the bank.
The use of leverage by hedge funds in recent years has drawn
more attention from regulators on the impact it could have on
portfolios, markets and banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve's
scenarios for its annual bank health check will start testing
banks against a scenario in which big hedge funds fail, while
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is asking hedge
funds for more detailed and regular data on exposures.
"Leverage is definitely at a high in the macro (hedge fund)
world," said John Delano, a managing director at Commonfund,
which invests in hedge funds, who said this was fueled by
progress in bringing down inflation and investor confidence in
artificial intelligence.
Goldman Sachs' ( GS ) note showed that hedge funds' leverage in
equity positions was at almost three times their books compared
with 2.35 times a year ago, and a record level over the past
five years, the period the bank uses for comparison.
The data means that for every $100 of their own capital, the
hedge funds had $300 in long and short positions.
JPMorgan showed current use of leverage - at roughly 2.7
times - is close to a peak reached since 2017 and higher than
98% of the time it has been tracked since then. Morgan Stanley ( MS )
also said leverage in the U.S. was higher only 2% of the time
when tracked in the last fourteen years.
BULLISH POSITIONING
The rise in leverage comes as hedge funds become more
bullish following a stock rally which took off at the end of
October, when investors started betting the Federal Reserve
would soon move to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 has
risen roughly 24% since then.
Barclays ( JJCTF ) said in its note that hedge funds across different
strategies are bullish. Global macro hedge funds are now long
equities after unwinding short positions they had last year
while systematic hedge funds are long different equity indexes.
Equity long positions in so-called commodity trading advisors
(CTAs), funds which use computers to follow price trends,
"remain stretched," Barclays ( JJCTF ) added.
"The market is taking the view that everything is fine,"
said Mario Unali, senior portfolio manager at Kairos Partners,
who said he has observed the highest level of leverage for the
last three years among systematic strategies, those that use
computer models based on data to trade.
While traditional hedge funds that go long or short on
stocks based on data analysis by people leveraged roughly two
times their books, equity quantitative and multi-strategy hedge
funds were at 4.5 and 3.1 times, according to a JPMorgan
estimate.
Since 2014, leveraged strategies have become more popular
among investors, outpacing the asset growth seen across the
industry. Multi-strategy and quantitative comprise roughly 32%
of the hedge fund space now versus 24% in 2014, according to
hedge fund research firm PivotalPath.
Still, these strategies are overall seen as less risky
because they tend to match long and short positions and are less
exposed to the ups and downs of stock markets.
The use of higher leverage to bet on a continuing rally
seems to be paying off so far. Equity hedge funds using
systematic strategies posted 6.42% in gains in the first two
months of this year, according to Goldman Sachs ( GS ), outpacing the
world stock index MSCI.
Edoardo Rulli, chief investment officer of UBS Hedge Fund
Solutions, a fund of hedge funds, said current leverage levels
are still maneuverable and are not one of his biggest concerns,
as volatility is lower.
Still, he is keeping an eye on it. "Leverage is always a
concern, so monitoring leverage is key. It can be deadly if
combined with liquidity risk," he said.