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INDIA BONDS-Fed guidance to shape India's 10-year bond yield trajectory from 6.50% mark
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INDIA BONDS-Fed guidance to shape India's 10-year bond yield trajectory from 6.50% mark
Sep 16, 2025 8:10 PM

MUMBAI, Sept 17 (Reuters) -

Indian government bond yields are likely to remain largely

unchanged in early deals on Wednesday, as the market braces for

the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and guidance

on future easing later in the day.

The yield on the 10-year benchmark note is

expected to be in the 6.48%-6.52% range, a trader said at a

private bank. It closed at 6.4925% on Tuesday.

"Locally, the debt supply calendar is the next trigger,

which is some time away, and hence all action is focused on

Federal Reserve decision and more importantly on clarity about

the quantum of rate cuts in October-December," the trader said.

The Fed's decision is due after Indian market hours, where a

25-basis-point rate cut is already factored in, with a thin

possibility of a 50-bps move.

Market participants will also scrutinize the forward

guidance and rate projections for signals on the likelihood of

further cuts in 2025.

The odds of an aggregate of 75 bps of rate cuts from now

through December stand at 74%, according to the CME FedWatch

Tool.

Back home, traders will await fresh debt supply as New Delhi

is scheduled to sell benchmark bond worth 300 billion rupees

($3.41 billion) on Friday, followed by the borrowing calendar

for the second half before the end of September.

Bond traders have urged the Reserve Bank of India to cut the

share of ultra-long federal bonds in the supply schedule and

reduce weekly auction sizes, which could stretch the borrowing

calendar until next March.

RATES

India's overnight index swaps are expected to be largely

unchanged after a marginal decline in the previous session, as

traders await Fed guidance.

The one-year OIS rate ended at 5.47% on

Tuesday, and the two-year OIS rate settled at

5.44%. The liquid five-year OIS rate was at

5.70%.

KEY INDICATORS:

** Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 0.2% at

$68.40 per barrel, after rising 1.5% in previous session

** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.0279%;

two-year yield at 3.5074%

** The RBI will auction treasury bills worth 210 billion

rupees

($1 = 87.8890 Indian rupees)

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