*
Wary investors move to "risk off" mode as geopolitical
tension
mounts
*
Crude oil prices spike higher on outbreak of hostilities
*
US VIX volatility measure at highest point in 3 weeks
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Linda Pasquini
NEW YORK/GDANSK, June 15 (Reuters) - Investors were on
edge ahead of markets reopening late on Sunday, gripped by
anxiety over nationwide protests against President Donald Trump
and the escalating threat of a sweeping conflict in the Middle
East.
Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other into
Sunday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Israeli
strikes would intensify as Tehran called off nuclear talks that
Washington had held out as the only way to halt the bombing.
Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis joined the fray.
"The market is very headline-driven and short-term focused,
so there's just a lot of volatility over the near term," said
Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX Group.
Oil prices rose by 7% on Friday, as Israel and Iran
traded strikes, and investors will be watching closely to see
how prices react when markets open later.
"So far we are at a stage of 'controlled confrontation,'"
said Lombard Odier's chief economist, Samy Chaar, in which it is
too soon to call for real and persistent economic damage despite
high risk. "For now, you get spikes in the oil price, you get
volatility, everyone's a bit nervous, but there is no clear sign
that we're moving towards the no-return type of scenario."
On Saturday, Israel appeared to have also hit Iran's oil and gas
industry for the first time, with Iranian state media reporting
a blaze at a gas field.
Israel's air offensive against Iran that began early on
Friday, killing commanders and scientists and bombing nuclear
sites in a stated bid to stop Tehran from building an atomic
weapon, knocked risky assets including stocks, on Friday. It
also lifted oil prices and prompted a rush into gold and the
dollar, which resumed its role as a safe-haven asset for the
first time in months.
Oil prices at close to six-month highs could pose a risk to the
inflation outlook, as central banks around the world grapple
with the impact on prices from Trump's trade tariffs and the
effect on economic growth.
Rooney Vera at StoneX said she was worried about possible
supply restrictions in case of a closure of the Strait of
Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman. Any
closure could restrict trade and impact global oil prices.
"That could worsen inflationary pressures," she said.
Lombard Odier's Chaar said a spike in oil prices should not
in theory derail monetary policy for now, as possible disruption
to Iranian oil supplies could be partly offset by output rises
elsewhere.
"It seems to me that long gone are the days when a central
bank would hike rates because of a spike in the oil prices,"
Chaar said, adding that policymakers will more likely stay
focused on economic fundamentals and demand-drivers.
Investors are nervous though, and the S&P 500 appears
to have stalled after rallying about 20% from its trade
war-induced April low to near-record highs.
"The overall risk profile from the geopolitical situation is
still too high for us to be willing to rush back into the
market," said Alex Morris, chief investment officer of F/m
Investments in Washington.
Meanwhile, protests, organised by the "No Kings" coalition to
oppose Trump's policies, and the assassination of a Minnesota
state lawmaker on Saturday, added to downbeat sentiment.
U.S. stock futures are set to resume trading at 6 p.m. (2200
GMT) on Sunday.
With risky assets sinking, investors' expectations for
near-term stock market gyrations jumped.
The Cboe Volatility Index, often called the Wall
Street "fear index," rose 2.8 points to finish at 20.82 on
Friday, its highest close in three weeks.
Michael Thompson, co-portfolio manager at boutique
investment firm Little Harbor Advisors, said he would be
watching near-term volatility futures prices for any rise toward
or above the level for futures set to expire months from now.
"This would indicate to us that near-term hedging is
warranted," he said.
(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Davide Barbuscia in New
York, and Linda Pasquini in Gdansk; Editing by Alden Bentley,
Richard Chang, Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton and Matthew Lewis )