* Japan plans massive public and private investment through
fiscal 2040
* Benchmark yields rise to highest since September 1996
* Recent 10-year JGB auction drew lower demand despite
elevated yields
By Junko Fujita
TOKYO, July 9 (Reuters) - Japan's bond market is signalling
diminishing confidence that the central bank can contain
inflation while the government's spending ambitions further
strain the nation's finances.
Yields on 10- and 20-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs)
shot to multi-decade highs this week as concerns resurfaced
about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's commitment to fiscal
responsibility and normalisation of monetary policy.
The gap between 10-year and 2-year JGB yields widened on
Wednesday to 143 basis points (bp), the highest since 2004, and
reflecting growing concerns about inflation and price risk on
the long end along with shrinking expectations for rate hikes by
the Bank of Japan on the short end.
"The latest steepening of the curve is a warning bell from
investors," said Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa
Securities. "There is a gap between the risk the market weighs
and the government's fiscal and monetary policy."
UNFUNDED TAX CUTS
The widening rate gap comes with growing unease that the
government's economic blueprint, unveiled last month, could
constrain the BOJ's ability to tighten monetary policy. Tokyo is
now reportedly considering revising the document's language in a
bid to calm the bond selloff.
The blueprint reinforced impressions that The Takaichi
administration views accommodative monetary policy as a
prerequisite for successful public-private growth investment,
and would thus be "unlikely to look favourably" upon rationales
for rate hikes, Mizuho Securities analysts said in a note.
The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1% in mid-June.
Swap rates indicate an 87% chance of another 25 bps
increase at the bank's policy meeting in December, according to
LSEG.
The 10-year JGB yield climbed further on
Thursday, reaching 2.88%, the highest since September 1996 and
marking its ninth straight day of gains, the longest streak in
19 years.
The yield's 20.5 bp jump this month compares to just 8.5 bp
for the two-year JGB, the one most sensitive to BOJ policy.
"This is a reflection of market concerns that the BOJ will
not be able to raise rates faster," said Katsutoshi Inadome,
senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.
The latest bout of selling echoes a pattern set in motion
since Takaichi took office last year. Her aggressive spending
plans sent 30- and 40-year bond yields to successive highs in
May, but they subsided after the finance ministry trimmed
super-long debt issuance.
Those worries have now resurfaced. Japan has disclosed plans
to spend more than 370 trillion yen ($2.28 trillion) in combined
public and private investment through fiscal 2040, alongside an
unresolved debate over cutting the tax on food to 1% without
specifying how it would be funded.
Yields at multi-decade highs have yet to entice buyers back
into the market. A sale of 10-year JGBs last week saw measures
of demand fall to the lowest since April.
"There are multiple reasons that the 10-year bond yields are
not going to fall," said Masayuki Koguchi, executive chief fund
manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management.
"The 10-year bond yield is low relative to the nation's
inflation. And as prices are set to rise further, the yield
would have to rise."
The Takaichi administration has tried to assuage markets
with reassurances that new spending will be responsible, paid
for by rising tax receipts and government efficiencies rather
than new debt issuance. She contends that faster economic growth
will bring down Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio, the highest in the
developed world at more than 200%.
"Given that Japan is now experiencing inflation, it is
important for Japan to run fiscal and monetary policy that
corresponds with the real economy," said Daiwa's Minami.
($1 = 162.3900 yen)