The answer is Donald Trump. The former US President, despite his numerous criminal indictments and civil suits, currently enjoys a slim lead over the incumbent, Joe Biden, in both unfavourable and favourable opinions among Americans, as per polling data compiled by Fivethirtyeight.

As per the latest polling data, compiled on Monday (November 27) from at least 11 sources, Fivethirtyeight reported that 39.1% of the respondents have a favourable opinion of Biden, while 42.1% favour Trump. Similarly, Joe Biden's unfavourables are at 54.7%, compared to Donald Trump's 53.2%.

Joe Biden — who turned 81 recently — in his 1,042nd day in office, has the lowest approval rate at this stage during not only his time in office, but also compared to 12 of his 13 predecessors spanning 80 years, going all the way back to Harry S. Truman (1945-53). Only Jimmy Carter, considered among the weakest Democrat presidents, had a lower approval rating, at 36.6%, in his 1042nd day in office.

(Note: Gerald Ford took over after Richard Nixon resigned partway through his second term, and John F. Kennedy was assassinated towards the end of his first. The approval ratings compared here are on their respective last days of their presidencies.)

According to Nathaniel Karich, Senior Editor and Election Analyst at ABC News, "There's a lot of dissatisfaction among his base about his handling of issues like the economy and the war in Israel-Gaza."

The most telling signs of Biden's fall in popularity came when American news outlet NBC released a poll in which Biden fell behind Trump for the first time in a hypothetical US presidential face-off while noting that "the deficit is well within the poll’s margin of error for a contest that’s still more than 11 months away."

However, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip — the US general election will be held in November 2024, and the primary season has yet to begin. It's only when campaigning starts in earnest for the election that a clearer picture will start to emerge. While Trump's Republican primary adversaries have been doing their best to mimic his demagogical rhetoric, perhaps to attract Trump voters, the former president has been testifying in court and jetting from one hearing to another.

Trump is facing a slew of criminal and civil lawsuits — two state indictments (New York and Georgia) and three federal indictments, totalling 91 felony charges, have trials set for March and May 2024, with the Georgia trial pending scheduling. The New York civil suit is currently underway.

Biden, meanwhile, has to contend with discontent within his own party. Democrats typically rely on the support of young voters for electoral victories. However, the recent polls showing a significant decline in Biden's approval — especially among voters aged 18-34 years— has the Democrats in a panic. This drop is notable, given that Biden won 60% of the vote in this demographic in 2020. The decline in approval is linked to concerns over Biden's stance on Israel, with only about a third of registered voters and half of Democrats approving his handling of the situation.

This is not the first time a sitting president trailed his presumptive presidential opponent in early polling. In 2012, Barack Obama, who was seeking a second term, trailed Mitt Romney 48% to 49% but ended up winning the election by a margin of 126 Electoral College votes.

While it is too early to predict a winner — considering the cloud of legal uncertainty hanging over Trump — if the US presidential election were to be held today, Trump will more than likely win a second term in the White House.

Also read: Joe Biden to skip COP climate meeting in Dubai

(Edited by : Shoma Bhattacharjee)

First Published:Nov 28, 2023 5:14 PM IST