Jan 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and

global markets by Amanda Cooper.

Trading action so far has been dominated by uncertainty over

incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. But

the "will he, won't he" narrative looks likely to take a

backseat as a number of key metrics on the labour market start

to filter through ahead of Friday's jobs data.

The December employment report is expected to show 150,000

workers were added to nonfarm payrolls, down from November's

227,000, which would bring the total number of jobs created in

2024 to 2.34 million. Excluding 2020, when the pandemic brought

the global economy to a halt for months, this would be the

smallest number since 2019's 1.988 million. But it's still

pretty much in line with average annual job creation prior to

2020's anomalous dynamics. U.S. exceptionalism is alive and

well, it seems.

For better or for worse, investors have plenty of

job-related data points to mull over in the run-up to the mighty

NFP report on Friday, starting today, with the JOLTS report on

job openings and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM)

non-manufacturing survey - where the employment component is

likely to come under extra close scrutiny.

The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover

Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show job openings - a measure of

demand for workers - remained roughly unchanged at 7.7 million

in November, from 7.74 million in October. The October report

showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers was 1.11,

indicating an employment market in balance, which aligns nicely

with the Federal Reserve's mandate to ensure full employment. So

far, so good.

The "but" here is the volatility of the survey itself, which

is often subject to quite large revisions, and the fact that it

is for the month prior to the upcoming NFP report, which makes

it a tad backward-looking. But investors will no doubt react to

it, given the heightened sensitivity of markets to U.S. rate

expectations.

Hot on the heels of the JOLTS survey is the ISM

non-manufacturing survey for December, which captures activity

in the mammoth U.S. services sector. The November headline

number came in at 52.1, above the 50-watermark that separates

growth from contraction. On a seasonal basis over the last 10

years, December has tended to be one of the weaker months of the

year for employment, with the sub-index averaging 51.3.

November's employment sub-index came in at 51.5, having hit a

13-month high of 53 the month before.

A separate reading of overall business activity, including

the factory sector, shows the United States was the only major

economy to show growth in November and since then, there has

been little evidence in the data to suggest this may have

changed much last month.

The futures market shows traders are fairly certain there

will be no Fed rate cuts much before June. Nonfarm payrolls may

be the one data point that can materially move the needle on

that. But with so much of that expectation riding on the U.S.

economy's ability to generate jobs at a decent clip, anything in

the run-up to Friday's number that suggests otherwise could

deliver an unwelcome jolt.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.

markets later on Tuesday:

* November U.S. trade balance

* December JOLTS report

* December Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing

survey