May 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Broadly speaking, the global backdrop for Asian markets is still
bright, with investors confident that the Fed will soon cut U.S.
interest rates keeping the dollar, bond yields and volatility in
check, and boosting risk assets.
But there's a cloud that shows no sign of lifting: China. If
anything, it's getting darker.
The economic "data dump" from Beijing on Friday showed that
China's recovery is sputtering - investment growth slowed,
retail sales expanded at the slowest pace since late 2022, and
new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years.
Most alarming, the property sector bust is deepening. Granted,
Chinese and Hong Kong shares jumped on Friday after Beijing
unveiled a series of historic steps to stabilize the sector, but
will the bounce last?
Even though the central bank said it is facilitating 1 trillion
yuan in extra funding and easing mortgage rules, and local
governments will buy some apartments, deep-rooted fundamentals
of huge over-supply and weak demand remain.
Renewed concern over China's growth raises the question of how
Beijing will finance its fiscal support measures in the long
term. China is sitting on more than $3 trillion of FX reserves.
Is now the time for China to dip into that rainy day fund to
prevent the property sector bust from bringing down the wider
economy?
It's unlikely, and Beijing may well default to ramping up
exports as the preferred path to recovery. But that would not be
welcomed by the United States, which last week imposed extra
tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China.
These tariffs and the hardening battle lines between the West
and China on trade are bound to feature prominently in next
week's meeting of G7 finance officials in Italy. U.S. Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen will attend, but it is unclear if Fed
Chair Jerome Powell will travel, after he tested positive for
COVID-19.
That said, financial markets are enjoying a period of remarkable
calm right now. Global FX volatility is the lowest in five
weeks, U.S. Treasury market volatility is at a six-week low, and
the VIX index on Friday fell below 12 for the first time this
year.
This low volatility environment is helping to lift U.S.,
European and other stock markets to all-time highs.
The Asian economic calendar on Monday offers a decent serving of
indicators for investors to get their teeth into, including: GDP
from Thailand, current account and trade data from Indonesia,
Malaysia and Taiwan, and unemployment from Hong Kong.
China's central bank is widely expected to keep its one- and
five-year loan prime rates on hold again at 3.45% and 3.95%,
respectively, after leaving its medium-term lending facility
loans unchanged on Wednesday.
Pressure is mounting for a cut soon, though.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- Thailand GDP (Q1)
- Taiwan exports (April)
- Japan tertiary index (March)