(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters)

By Mike Dolan

April 15 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Global stock markets are largely back near pre-war levels and

Wall Street is once again flirting with record highs, as the

mood music from the Middle East and Washington turns positive on

hopes of more peace talks.

Real or imagined, that narrative is capping crude prices,

allowing investors to refocus on earnings and economic

fundamentals.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column, where I dig into markets'

apparent belief that the war is likely over, bar the shouting.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where I discuss corporate earnings and the IMF's latest

global growth forecasts.

Finally, don't forget to mark April 23 in your calendar, when

I'll be joining my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever for a timely

webinar discussion on rethinking safe-haven assets in uncertain

times. Sign ⁠up here.

BACK TO BUSINESS

Brent and WTI crude were still comfortably below $100 a barrel

heading into Wednesday, trading at around $96/bbl and $92/bbl,

respectively. That followed comments from President Trump on

Tuesday that talks with Iran could resume in days, even as the

U.S. military said it had halted Iran's maritime trade as part

of its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

This helped fuel another Wall Street rally on Tuesday. The

Nasdaq jumped 2%, while the S&P 500 rose 1% to close just shy of

its record high. Asian equities followed suit on Wednesday, with

Japan's Nikkei up 0.9% and South Korea's KOSPI surging 3%.

European stocks traded flat, as did U.S. futures before the

bell.

In a sign that the recovery hasn't only been on Wall Street, the

MSCI all-country index, excluding U.S. stocks, hit its best

levels since March 2 on Tuesday. Elsewhere, the VIX volatility

index returned to its February levels and the dollar continued

to give back its safe-haven gains, hovering near its lowest

point since the war.

The optimism at large looks to be justified by corporate

earnings, which kicked off in earnest this week with mostly

bumper results from the U.S. banks. JPMorgan beat first-quarter

profit expectations, helped by robust trading revenue and

dealmaking, while Citi reported its strongest quarterly revenue

in a decade, sending its shares to their highest point since

2008. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will report later

today.

ASML, the world's largest chipmaking tool supplier, added to the

upbeat tone on Wednesday as it beat earnings expectations and

lifted its 2026 revenue outlook on AI-driven demand.

Although the IMF trimmed its global growth forecasts on Tuesday

- and even warned the world could be drifting toward an "adverse

scenario" amid the war - its reference forecast assumes a

short-lived conflict, with its global growth forecast unchanged

for 2027.

Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices jumped in March due to the

energy shock, but the increase was almost half what economists

had expected - a reassuring sign, particularly as the data

covered a period after the start of the Iran conflict.

Chart of the day

As financial markets return to pre-war levels, many

investors are looking at just why the March oil shock has not

shifted the dial much on global economic forecasts. One of many

reasons is the world economy's dwindling dependency on fossil

fuels, with the share of power generated by wind and solar more

than trebling over the past decade.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March import prices (8:30 a.m. EDT)

* Fed's Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman speak

* Fed issues the Beige Book

* U.S. corporate earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.