(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and
global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Ailing around the world caught a break yesterday on a mix
of signals, decent and ebbing .
The bond bounce and easing speculation added to on its
antitrust win to again on Wednesday, with index futures up
again ahead of Thursday's bell. The day ahead brings another
stream of labor market updates ahead of Friday's critical August
payrolls report.
* Fed futures rallied to fully price a quarter point interest
rate cut later this month after news of falling U.S. job
openings added to a downbeat readout from the central bank's
'Beige Book' on economic conditions and relatively dovish
soundings from Fed officials. Two-year Treasury yields hit a
four-month low. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a
hearing on Thursday to consider President Donald Trump's nominee
to the Fed board Stephen Miran while central bankers around the
world fretted about potential threats to Fed independence.
* Long-dated government bond yields around the world pulled
back from record or multi-year highs on Thursday in tandem with
the 10 basis point slide in 30-year Treasuries from yesterday's
5% peak, with Japan's 30-year equivalent also getting a break
after a bond sale there drew enough demand to calm the horses
despite being the lowest bid-to-offer rate since June. UK
30-year gilts rallied too with a 20bp drop in yields from
Wednesday's highs. The dollar was firmer.
* Japan and the United States are in the final stages of talks
to implement lower tariffs on Japanese automobile imports within
10-14 days after a U.S. presidential executive order. Japanese
stocks rallied, but Chinese stocks sharply underperformed
generally higher world stocks - falling the most in nearly five
months after media reports of possible regulatory curbs on
speculation.
Today's column explores why the so-called 'Fed put' may not work
for long-maturity bonds and why lower central bank rates could
actually aggravate the problem.
Today's Market Minute
* Donald Trump's administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court on
Wednesday to swiftly hear a bid to preserve his sweeping tariffs
pursued under a 1977 law meant for emergencies after a lower
court invalidated most of the levies that have been central to
the Republican president's economic and trade agenda.
* Alibaba
(9988.HK) ByteDance and other Chinese tech firms remain keen
on Nvidia's (NVDA.O) artificial intelligence chips despite
regulators in Beijing strongly discouraging them from such
purchases, four people with knowledge of procurement
discussions said.
* North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country would "fully
support" Russia's army as a "fraternal duty", and Russian
President Vladimir Putin called the two countries' ties
"special", state media KCNA reported on Thursday.
* A notable trend this year has been the often-counterintuitive
market reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to
upend many long-held economic norms. One of the biggest
surprises, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, has been
the appreciation of China's yuan.
* The high-stakes energy diplomacy in Beijing this week
signals China's willingness to defy U.S. President Donald
Trump's efforts to isolate Russia and assert U.S. energy
dominance.
Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.
Chart of the day
U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low in July and there
were more unemployed people than positions available for the
first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, data consistent with
easing labor market conditions evident in that month's broader
employment report.
With reports on private sector payrolls and layoffs for
August, along with weekly jobless claims numbers, due on
Thursday, the signals for July will be held up to the light and
Friday's August employment report is then likely to be pivotal
for Fed easing expectations.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. August layoffs from Challenger (7:30 AM EDT) US
August ADP private sector payrolls (8:15 AM EDT) weekly jobless
claims (8:30 AM EDT), July goods trade balance (8:30 AM EDT)
August service sector surveys from S&P Global (9:45 AM EDT) and
ISM (10:00 AM EDT), Q2 labor costs and productivity (8:30 AM
EDT); Canada July goods trade (8:30 AM EDT)
* Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on nomination of
Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board (9:00 AM EDT)
* New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed
President Austan Goolsbee both speak
* German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir
Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte take part in talks
with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Paris
* U.S. corporate earnings: Broadcom, Copart, Lululemon
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(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters)