(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

March 24 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

As President Trump's 48-hour countdown to attacks on Iranian

power plants becomes five days thanks to an apparent

breakthrough with Tehran, markets are as confused as anybody

about who exactly is talking to who. U.S. and Iranian messaging

on the matter differs starkly.

Trump's announcement caused wild market swings on Monday, with

oil plunging, stocks rallying, and yields easing. But some of

that relief momentum is looking a little less certain today.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how bonds' Iran-war

doldrums fit a long historical pattern - and what might be

needed for a turnaround.

And catch today's episode of the Morning Bid podcast, where I

unpack the whiplash and contradictions roiling markets.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news

in markets and finance seven days a week.

FROM 48 HOURS TO FIVE DAYS

Oil prices plunged more than 10% on Monday in the wake of

Trump's announcement, with Brent dropping to as low as $97 per

barrel and WTI touching $86. Other markets rallied on the back

of that, with all major U.S. stock indexes finishing up more

than 1%.

But Iran claimed that no negotiations with the U.S. had taken

place and that the whole thing was "fake news" aimed at calming

markets.

That's dampened things somewhat, with oil retracing some of its

losses on Tuesday to leave Brent hovering just above $100 per

barrel and U.S. crude around $90.

In equities, Asian shares managed to eke out a gain on Tuesday,

but European shares were shaky and U.S. stock futures edged down

before the bell.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed - except to a handful of

India-flagged tankers - and missiles kept flying overnight. If

nothing gets resolved, it's going to be another nervous Friday

ahead.

Whatever the truth behind all the politics and maneuvering,

financial traders subscribing to the idea that Trump always

backs down when financial markets quake will see this latest

episode as confirmation of that stance.

Specifically, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields early on Monday

to their highest in seven months - before easing after Trump's

post - was another indication that rising government borrowing

costs are the president's kryptonite during his more disruptive

ventures.

Either way, markets remain nervous and will today keep tabs

on just how much damage the Middle East conflict has done to

business confidence in March as flash business surveys are

released around the world.

Elsewhere, Asian countries are examining different ways to

alleviate energy costs and shortages, with South Korea exploring

an energy saving campaign and China limiting rises in its fuel

price ceiling.

And Japan recorded a surprisingly large drop in inflation for

February, back below 2% for the first time in nearly four years.

Although the figures are from before the war, they could

complicate things for the Bank of Japan as it strikes a more

hawkish tone.

In more anxiety-inducing news from the private credit world,

Apollo on Monday became the latest asset manager to cap heavy

redemptions from its flagship private credit fund. It will curb

redemptions at 5% of its shares after investors tried to

withdraw approximately 11.2% of the total.

Chart of the day

Futures markets no longer see any further Federal Reserve

interest rate cuts this year, with the energy shock from the

Iran war expected to keep U.S. inflation at levels that keep the

Fed on hold at least until the second half of 2027.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs

(9:45 a.m. EDT)

* U.S. 2-year note auction

* Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks

* EU's Ursula von der Leyen meets with Australian Prime

Minister Anthony Albanese

* Denmark holds a general election

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Mike Dolan

Editing by Keith Weir)