(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

World markets have hunkered down for three days of economic

health checks, corporate readouts and policy decisions that may

define the remainder of the summer, with U.S. trade worries

easing somewhat following a series of framework deals that

should enable better planning ahead.

Global stocks and U.S. futures flatlined on Wednesday, with the

Federal Reserve due to hold the line in interest rates again

later in the day just as U.S. GDP and jobs updates stream in

alongside the first set of megacap earnings from Microsoft and

Meta. The dollar took a breather too after a strong two-day

rally.

I'll review today's news and then discuss why the

International Monetary Fund's upgraded forecast for the global

economy on Tuesday suggests the world is navigating Washington's

trade war better than many had feared, for better or worse.

* The big macro market mover late Tuesday was a sharp drop in

Treasury yields ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting and the

Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement. This followed

strong demand at a series of hefty debt auctions this week, most

notably record take-up of 7-year notes on Tuesday. The drop in

10-year yields to their lowest point since July 3 was all the

more impressive against the surge in crude oil prices to their

highest level in over a month.

* The second quarter U.S. GDP estimate now takes center stage,

with the narrower-than-forecast June trade deficit released on

Tuesday pushing up the Atlanta Fed's estimate of growth to 2.9%

from 2.4% earlier. Other releases showed U.S. June job openings

softening but consumer confidence brightening this month, with

the monthly payrolls and June PCE inflation gauge due on Friday

* The Fed is expected to stand pat later despite likely dissents

from President Donald Trump's two appointees on the board. The

Bank of Canada is likely to hold steady too. The Bank of Japan

delivers its verdict on Thursday. While the trade picture

appears to be clearing up for monetary policymakers ahead of

Friday's deadline for trade deals, the inflation fallout remains

foggy.

* With investors deep in the weeds of the earnings season,

attention turns squarely to the artificial intelligence theme

after the bell on Wednesday with Microsoft and Meta's updates.

Apple and Amazon are due Thursday. UPS and Whirlpool lost more

than 10% on Tuesday amid tariff-related hits. In Europe, pharma

giant Novo Nordisk was still reeling from a near 25% share price

plunge on Tuesday - its biggest ever one-day drop - after it

slashed its outlook amid the stiff competition facing its main

obesity drug.

Today's Market Minute

* U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to seek an extension of

their 90-day tariff truce on Tuesday, following two days of what

both sides described as constructive talks aimed at defusing an

escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with India has

yet to be finalised and warned of possible higher tariffs ahead

of an August 1 deadline to seal an agreement.

* Trump's trade tariffs are ramping up the cost of importing

already-pricey cocoa and hurting the competitiveness of local

factories versus Canadian and Mexican outfits that supply the

U.S., according to conversations with 11 industry executives,

representatives, experts and traders.

* Retail investors are often late to Wall Street parties, only

catching the rally once "smart money" is looking for the exit.

But that doesn't appear to be the case this time around, claims

ROI columnist Jamie McGeever.

* If you consider it good practice to consult more than one

news source, you may have been confused by the reporting of the

latest U.S. Consumer Price Index release. And, writes Income

Securities Advisor publisher Marty Fridson, the various

interpretations of how that report affected stock prices might

have truly left you scratching your head.

Chart of the day

U.S. President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped another

one percentage point to 40% over the second half of July, the

lowest of his second term in office, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

As ever, the partisan split was extreme - with 83% of

Republicans and just 3% of Democrats approving of his

performance. About one-third of independents approved. Overall,

38% of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy

and 43% of respondents approved of his record on immigration.

Today's events to watch

* ADP's U.S. July private sector payrolls (8:15 AM EDT), US

Q2 GDP estimate (8:30 AM EDT) June pending home sales (10:00 AM

EDT); Mexico Q2 GDP (8:00 AM EDT)

* Bank of Canada policy decision (9:45 AM EDT)

* Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee policy

decision (2:00 PM EDT) and press conference from Fed Chair

Jerome Powell (2:30 PM EDT)

* U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (8:30 AM

EDT)

* U.S. corporate earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Ford,

Kraft Heinz, eBay, Prudential Financial, Verisk, MGM Resorts,

Hershey, Humana, Ventas, Equinix, Altria, Western Digital,

Cognizant, Lam Research, Smurfit Westrock, Albermarle, Everest,

Align, AvalonBay, FirstEnergy, Bunge, Fortive, ADP, IDEX, F5,

Garmin

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Mike Dolan

Editing by Frances Kerry)