(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

April 29 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global

markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Today marks the apex of a packed week of events, with the

Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and earnings reports

from four of the U.S. mega-caps. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there's

been some cooling of red-hot stock markets in advance, not least

in the supercharged tech and chip space.

That tech retreat was partly triggered by a report that OpenAI

had missed some of its internal targets for user growth, calling

into question the seemingly boundless optimism around AI demand.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why a narrowing

transatlantic rate gap may be a mirage.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the

biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

WHIRLWIND WEDNESDAY

OpenAI pushed back on the report about missed targets, but its

central role in the tech transformation - and its cross-deals

with major AI firms - meant the jitters were enough to knock

back other stocks, including Oracle and CoreWeave.

All major U.S. indexes closed down on Tuesday and futures were

steady before the bell on Wednesday, while Asian markets edged

up and European shares rose after the open.

As to the Fed meeting, the stasis in the Iran conflict - which

appears to be going nowhere right now - has caused energy prices

to edge higher and sent market inflation expectations over the

next year or two to six-month highs. No change in rates is

expected today. Powell's guidance is likely to lean hawkish,

though it may pack less of a punch than it did over the past

eight years.

Markets see less than a 20% chance of another rate cut this

year, and March inflation figures due out on Thursday are

expected to rise.

Meantime, a worrying rise in household inflation expectations in

the euro zone should lead to a more hawkish tilt from the

European Central Bank, which meets tomorrow.

Elsewhere, energy markets were digesting Tuesday's surprise

decision by the UAE to leave OPEC after more than 50 years. The

move is expected to undermine the cartel's influence over prices

in the longer term, and the UAE is likely to ramp up production

once the Iran conflict is over.

But with Gulf oil markets largely frozen thanks to the Iran

conflict, there was no immediate crude price reaction, though

long-dated futures slipped slightly.

More relevant right now is the continued disruption in the

Strait of Hormuz, with Brent and WTI crude spiking on Wednesday

to as high as $115 and $103 per barrel, respectively. That was

partly on a WSJ report that President Trump has instructed aides

to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.

Chart of the day

The UAE was in February OPEC's fourth-largest producer after

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq - accounting for about 12% of total

output, according to the International Energy Agency. The UAE

has a capacity of around 4.85 million barrels per day and aims

to lift that to 5 million bpd by 2027 - ambitions that sat

uneasily with OPEC's ongoing output curbs.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2 p.m. EDT)

and news conference with Chair Jerome Powell (2:30 p.m. EDT)

* Bank of Canada interest rate decision (9:45 a.m. EDT)

* U.S. corporate earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon,

Meta, Qualcomm

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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