A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
World markets stalled on Tuesday as another heavy earnings week
for megacap stocks cranked up, with renewed slippage in Japan's
yen and U.S. Treasuries eyed closely in the background.
Major macro market moves are likely in check for now as the
Federal Reserve starts its latest two day policy meeting - with
Wall Street also eyeing first quarter results from two more top
ten world caps Amazon and Eli Lilly.
News of a larger U.S. Treasury borrowing slate for the
coming quarter than previously estimated unnerved the bond
market a touch overnight. Blaming lower cash receipts, the
government said late Monday it expects to borrow $243 billion in
the second quarter - some $41 billion more than it said in
January.
But currency markets remained focussed on the fate of the
yen as it fell again earlier on Tokyo's return from Monday's
public holiday - during which suspected official intervention
lifted it from a trough of 160 per dollar.
As the Nikkei stock benchmark jumped more than 1% on
its return from the long weekend, the Japanese currency
weakened almost a full yen from Monday's New York close to
within a whisker of 157 - almost 1% down from levels seen before
Friday's Bank of Japan meeting and despite yesterday's wild
swings.
Without confirming Monday's intervention, Japan's top
currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday that 'speculative,
rapid and abnormal' yen moves could not be overlooked and on
Tuesday said the authorities were ready to act around the clock.
"We are ready 24 hours, so whether it's London, New York or
Wellington, it doesn't make a difference," he told reporters.
Kanda also said finance ministers of Japan, China, South
Korea and ASEAN countries will meet on the sidelines of the
upcoming Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Tbilisi,
Georgia.
Whatever the merits or otherwise of the yen's accelerating
fall to 34-year lows for Japan's own economy, there's some
trepidation that it may upend the competitive landscape across
Asia's major exporting nations and South Korea and others are
watching closely.
To that end at least, China continues to hold the yuan
relatively stable against the dollar - although its
recently buoyant stock markets wobbled a bit again
Tuesday after a mixed set of monthly business surveys showed a
slowing of activity there in April.
China's Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling
Communist Party, said on Tuesday it will step up its support for
the economy, flexibly using policy tools that include banks'
reserve requirement ratios and interest rates.
It also said it would coordinate and improve policies to
reduce housing inventories and optimize policy measures for new
housing to address the ongoing property sector bust - though the
statement seemed to stop short of detailing the sort of major
initiatives that markets had speculated about on Monday.
In Europe, the heavy earnings season dominated - but there
was some relief that April consumer price inflation readings for
the euro zone came in as expected at annual 2.4%, core inflation
rates ebbed and flash readings for quarterly growth in the bloc
beat forecasts with a 0.3% expansion.
Money markets are more than 70% priced for the first
European Central Bank interest rate cut as soon as June and the
euro held steady.
That's despite the contrast with Fed expectations, where
futures now don't fully price a quarter point off rates until
after November's election.
With the Fed kicking off this week's two-day meeting on
Tuesday, it's widely expected to hold the line again - though
there is some focus on whether it will reveal anything on
slowing its balance sheet rundown of Treasury holdings.
Irked by the 'higher for longer' rates prospect, heavier
second-quarter borrowing plans and even the chance Japan may
soon be a seller of Treasuries to fund intervention to support
the yen, 10-year yields nudged higher again on
Tuesday to 4.65%.
In company news, HSBC's ( HSBC ) stock rose 2% after Chief
Executive Noel Quinn said he plans to step down, marking the
surprise departure of a hard-nosed leader who has overseen a
raft of asset sales, guided the lender to record profit and
lifted its share price.
A former head of the bank's markets business who was
appointed to the No. 2 role over a year ago, Chief Financial
Officer Georges Elhedery is likely the leading internal
candidate for the job.
Back on Wall Street, Tesla stole the show on Monday
as its beaten down shares surged 15.3% after the electric
vehicle maker made progress in securing regulatory approval to
launch its advanced driver-assistance program in China.
Apple ( AAPL ), which reports earnings on Thursday, gained
2.5% following a report the iPhone maker had renewed discussions
with OpenAI about using the startup's generative artificial
intelligence technology.
Amazon tops the heavy earnings diary later, with eyes also
on Super Micro Computers for a glimpse of what's happening in
the AI world.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later
on Tuesday:
* US April consumer confidence, Chicago April PMI business
survey, Dallas Fed April service sector survey, US Q1 labor
costs, Feb monthly home prices
* Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts two-day
policy meeting - decision Wednesday
* US corporate earnings: Amazon, Eli Lilly, Super Micro
Computers, Advanced Micro Devices, Prudential Financial, PayPal,
3M, Marathon, Mondelez, Coca Cola, Starbucks, Molson Coors,
McDonalds, Clorox, Corning, Edison, Eaton, Amcor, Archer Daniels
Midland, Stryker, Sysco, Hubbell, Pacar, Skyworks Solutions,
Incyte, CentrePoint Energy, Diamondback Energy, Caesars
Entertainment, American Tower, Illinois Tool Works, Republic
Services, Essex Property Trust, Ecolab, Gartner etc
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher,