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QUOTES-Reaction to Japanese super-long bond yields hitting record highs
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QUOTES-Reaction to Japanese super-long bond yields hitting record highs
May 26, 2025 10:39 AM

SINGAPORE, May 20 (Reuters) - Japan's longest-dated

government bond yields climbed to all-time highs on Tuesday,

after a poor auction sparked a selloff in the bond market as

worries about the country's fiscal health grow.

The 30-year JGB yield soared 17 basis points

to 3.14%, while the 40-year yield surged 15 bps

to 3.6%.

Following is some reaction from analysts:

FRED NEUMANN, CHIEF ASIA ECONOMIST, HSBC, HONG KONG :

"Rising debt levels in developed markets have become a

growing concern in recent years, and the seeming lack of urgency

about fiscal consolidation is leaving government bond investors

increasingly jittery.

"For the Bank of Japan, this may mean that it may have to

slow its quantitative tightening, helping to dampen yields in

the Japanese government bond market. There is only so much

central banks can do, however, in reining in government yields,

without undermining their policy independence.

After years of generous spending and tax cuts, fiscal

constraints are starting to bite. Japan is not alone in facing

the need for budget consolidation, but volatility in other

developed economies' bond markets adds an extra layer of urgency

to put the fiscal house in order."

MASAYUKI KICHIKAWA, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST AT SUMITOMO

MITSUI DS ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO

"Supply-demand conditions in the super-long sector are

unstable. Growth expectations globally have recovered to some

extent, leading to some recovery in BOJ rate hike expectations."

"People expect the BOJ will continue to raise rates and

reduce holdings of JGBs. Many investors are probably thinking,

especially for super-long bonds, what yield level is consistent

with a policy rate at, for example, 1.25% and no support from

BOJ buying. We are in a process of finding that equilibrium.

It's a process of trial and error."

JPMorgan analysts in a research note

"Domestic investors' demand for duration is structurally

slowing down. The BOJ's reduction in bond purchases is steadily

progressing, making it increasingly difficult to absorb duration

risk in the market.

While price formation without intervention from the MoF and

the BoJ is ideal, some form of action is needed to stop the

collapse of super-long JGBs at present, or there could be

further super-long bond shocks triggered by downgrades or

additional fiscal measures."

FRANCES CHEUNG, HEAD OF FX & RATES STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE

"The 20Y JGB auction did not go very well and there has been

spillover onto long end bonds in the secondary market. Recent

market performance and the gauge on demand for JGBs will be

inputs to be weighed, ahead of BOJ's interim assessment of its

QT plan in June. Decision is to be made as to whether to stick

with its plan to further reduce the monthly JGB purchase

amounts."

HIROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SUMITOMO MITSUI

BANKING CORP, TOKYO

"Amid the global trend of rising long-term interest rates,

JGBs are no exception and are facing upward pressure on yields.

Regarding the JGB market, market participants are currently in

the process of assessing demand during each auction, and

stability remains elusive. I think that the upward pressure is

likely to persist for the time being."

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