SINGAPORE, May 20 (Reuters) - Japan's longest-dated
government bond yields climbed to all-time highs on Tuesday,
after a poor auction sparked a selloff in the bond market as
worries about the country's fiscal health grow.
The 30-year JGB yield soared 17 basis points
to 3.14%, while the 40-year yield surged 15 bps
to 3.6%.
Following is some reaction from analysts:
FRED NEUMANN, CHIEF ASIA ECONOMIST, HSBC, HONG KONG :
"Rising debt levels in developed markets have become a
growing concern in recent years, and the seeming lack of urgency
about fiscal consolidation is leaving government bond investors
increasingly jittery.
"For the Bank of Japan, this may mean that it may have to
slow its quantitative tightening, helping to dampen yields in
the Japanese government bond market. There is only so much
central banks can do, however, in reining in government yields,
without undermining their policy independence.
After years of generous spending and tax cuts, fiscal
constraints are starting to bite. Japan is not alone in facing
the need for budget consolidation, but volatility in other
developed economies' bond markets adds an extra layer of urgency
to put the fiscal house in order."
MASAYUKI KICHIKAWA, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST AT SUMITOMO
MITSUI DS ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO
"Supply-demand conditions in the super-long sector are
unstable. Growth expectations globally have recovered to some
extent, leading to some recovery in BOJ rate hike expectations."
"People expect the BOJ will continue to raise rates and
reduce holdings of JGBs. Many investors are probably thinking,
especially for super-long bonds, what yield level is consistent
with a policy rate at, for example, 1.25% and no support from
BOJ buying. We are in a process of finding that equilibrium.
It's a process of trial and error."
JPMorgan analysts in a research note
"Domestic investors' demand for duration is structurally
slowing down. The BOJ's reduction in bond purchases is steadily
progressing, making it increasingly difficult to absorb duration
risk in the market.
While price formation without intervention from the MoF and
the BoJ is ideal, some form of action is needed to stop the
collapse of super-long JGBs at present, or there could be
further super-long bond shocks triggered by downgrades or
additional fiscal measures."
FRANCES CHEUNG, HEAD OF FX & RATES STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE
"The 20Y JGB auction did not go very well and there has been
spillover onto long end bonds in the secondary market. Recent
market performance and the gauge on demand for JGBs will be
inputs to be weighed, ahead of BOJ's interim assessment of its
QT plan in June. Decision is to be made as to whether to stick
with its plan to further reduce the monthly JGB purchase
amounts."
HIROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SUMITOMO MITSUI
BANKING CORP, TOKYO
"Amid the global trend of rising long-term interest rates,
JGBs are no exception and are facing upward pressure on yields.
Regarding the JGB market, market participants are currently in
the process of assessing demand during each auction, and
stability remains elusive. I think that the upward pressure is
likely to persist for the time being."