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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar strikes back, Japan in spotlight
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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar strikes back, Japan in spotlight
Aug 25, 2024 1:30 PM

Aug 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Japanese inflation and monetary policy are under the

spotlight in Asian trading on Friday, as a mood of nervous

anticipation descends on world markets ahead of U.S. Fed Chair

Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech later in the day.

U.S. stocks and bonds fell and the dollar rose on Thursday,

a reversal of this week's moves that had seen the S&P 500 climb

back toward its recent all-time high, the 10-year yield post its

lowest close in over a year, and the dollar hit a 2024 low.

The S&P 500 on Thursday came within 0.5% of revisiting last

month's record high but ended the day down 0.9%, while the

Nasdaq lost 1.7%. Both were their steepest declines since the

Aug. 5 volatility shock.

The MSCI emerging market currency index, meanwhile, fell

0.3% on Thursday - not a particularly big move on the face of it

but, remarkably, its biggest decline in four months. With the

dollar, yields and U.S. recession worries all rising, emerging

market assets will be under pressure on Friday.

That's the backdrop to Asia's trading day, where the

spotlight will fall on Japanese inflation figures and Bank of

Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's monetary policy testimony to

lawmakers.

It will mark Ueda's first public comments since the central

bank last month raised interest rates by a higher-than-expected

25 basis points. That, coupled with his hawkish post-decision

press conference, helped stoke volatility in Japanese markets

that ended up with a sharp unwind of yen carry trades and the

Nikkei 225 index's biggest one-day fall since 1987.

The Nikkei has recovered all those losses and more, closing

on Thursday at a three-week high. That's all the more impressive

considering the yen has held onto to almost all its gains, and

is still up more than 10% in the last six weeks.

Official figures are expected to show that annual core

inflation ticked up in July to 2.7% from 2.6% on June. That

would put inflation above the BOJ's 2% target for the 28th

straight month, supporting BOJ officials' view that they should

continue the move away from decades of ultra-easy policy.

Japan's economy expanded by a much faster-than-expected

annualized 3.1% in the second quarter. In a Reuters poll

published this week, 57% of the economists surveyed think the

BOJ will raise rates again by the end of this year.

As well as Japanese inflation, the Asian calendar on Friday

includes Singapore inflation and New Zealand retail sales data.

Current market pricing suggests the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

will be one of the most dovish G10 central banks, cutting rates

230 basis points by the end of next year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Friday:

- Japan inflation (July)

- BOJ Governor Ueda speaks

- Singapore inflation (July)

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