Feb 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets go into the new week on the front foot, supported
by the weaker dollar, an ongoing rebound in China, and a wider
switch into global assets as investors rotate out of the 'U.S.
exceptionalism' trades that served them so well last year.
The main calendar event is fourth-quarter GDP data from
Japan. Economists are expecting annualized growth of 1.0%,
according to a Reuters poll, slightly less than the revised 1.2%
expansion in July-September, with business investment making up
for weak consumption.
The dollar is at a two-month low, dragged down by the delay
in the Trump administration's tariff proposals actually being
implemented. President Donald Trump's ultimate tariff
destination may not have changed, but the journey is taking
longer than many analysts had perhaps expected, and that is
giving some relief to markets and weighing on the dollar.
The dollar is down four days in a row, its longest losing
streak since August. Most key emerging market currencies are now
up against the greenback year-to-date, apart from the Indian
rupee.
Emerging and Asian assets more broadly are getting a lift.
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index has rebounded 8% in the last month,
an impressive move but not a patch on Hong Kong stocks - the
Hang Seng is up 20% in the last month and the Hang Seng tech
index is up 30%.
Bank of America analysts note that since Trump's
inauguration on January 20, shares in China's big tech 'BATX'
firms - Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi - are up 22%, while
America's 'Magnificent Seven' are up 0%.
WisdomTree's head of equities Jeff Weniger notes that
China's 'Terrific Ten' group of top tech stocks is now
"crushing" the 'Magnificent Seven. How much juice is left in
this move?
If DeepSeek shows that China is very much in the global AI
race, this trend could continue - Chinese stocks are extremely
undervalued relative to their U.S. peers, and as BofA analysts
note, 'BATX' market cap is currently only $1 trillion compared
with the Mag Seven's $17 trillion.
Elsewhere in the tech/AI space, Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Co and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals
that would break U.S. chipmaking icon Intel in two, the Wall
Street Journal reported on Saturday.
Meanwhile, fast-moving geopolitical developments around the
Russia-Ukraine war are back on investors' radar. French
President Emmanuel Macron will host an emergency European summit
on Monday after U.S. officials suggested Europe would have no
role in any talks on ending the conflict, a peace process that
will seemingly be conducted between the U.S. and Russia.
Leaving aside the politics of it all, the prospect of even
an imperfect peace is pushing oil and the dollar lower, and
lifting European stocks. Other risk markets, like Asian and
emerging assets, should benefit too.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Monday:
- Japan GDP (Q4)
- Thailand GDP (Q4)
- Indonesia trade (January)