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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar, tech and tariff delays fuel rotation plays
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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar, tech and tariff delays fuel rotation plays
Feb 16, 2025 2:17 PM

Feb 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets go into the new week on the front foot, supported

by the weaker dollar, an ongoing rebound in China, and a wider

switch into global assets as investors rotate out of the 'U.S.

exceptionalism' trades that served them so well last year.

The main calendar event is fourth-quarter GDP data from

Japan. Economists are expecting annualized growth of 1.0%,

according to a Reuters poll, slightly less than the revised 1.2%

expansion in July-September, with business investment making up

for weak consumption.

The dollar is at a two-month low, dragged down by the delay

in the Trump administration's tariff proposals actually being

implemented. President Donald Trump's ultimate tariff

destination may not have changed, but the journey is taking

longer than many analysts had perhaps expected, and that is

giving some relief to markets and weighing on the dollar.

The dollar is down four days in a row, its longest losing

streak since August. Most key emerging market currencies are now

up against the greenback year-to-date, apart from the Indian

rupee.

Emerging and Asian assets more broadly are getting a lift.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index has rebounded 8% in the last month,

an impressive move but not a patch on Hong Kong stocks - the

Hang Seng is up 20% in the last month and the Hang Seng tech

index is up 30%.

Bank of America analysts note that since Trump's

inauguration on January 20, shares in China's big tech 'BATX'

firms - Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi - are up 22%, while

America's 'Magnificent Seven' are up 0%.

WisdomTree's head of equities Jeff Weniger notes that

China's 'Terrific Ten' group of top tech stocks is now

"crushing" the 'Magnificent Seven. How much juice is left in

this move?

If DeepSeek shows that China is very much in the global AI

race, this trend could continue - Chinese stocks are extremely

undervalued relative to their U.S. peers, and as BofA analysts

note, 'BATX' market cap is currently only $1 trillion compared

with the Mag Seven's $17 trillion.

Elsewhere in the tech/AI space, Taiwan Semiconductor

Manufacturing Co and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals

that would break U.S. chipmaking icon Intel in two, the Wall

Street Journal reported on Saturday.

Meanwhile, fast-moving geopolitical developments around the

Russia-Ukraine war are back on investors' radar. French

President Emmanuel Macron will host an emergency European summit

on Monday after U.S. officials suggested Europe would have no

role in any talks on ending the conflict, a peace process that

will seemingly be conducted between the U.S. and Russia.

Leaving aside the politics of it all, the prospect of even

an imperfect peace is pushing oil and the dollar lower, and

lifting European stocks. Other risk markets, like Asian and

emerging assets, should benefit too.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Monday:

- Japan GDP (Q4)

- Thailand GDP (Q4)

- Indonesia trade (January)

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