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MORNING BID ASIA-Inflation cools, TSMC offers AI weather vane
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MORNING BID ASIA-Inflation cools, TSMC offers AI weather vane
Oct 17, 2024 2:02 PM

Oct 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Markets across Asia should open on a firm footing on Thursday,

supported by a rebound on Wall Street and softer Treasury yields

the day before, and growing signs that global inflationary

pressures are broadly easing.

Asia's economic calendar on Thursday sees the release of the

latest international trade data from Japan and Singapore, and

Australian unemployment.

The main three U.S. indices all closed in the green on

Wednesday with banks and small caps leading the rise. Big Tech,

however, remains under pressure, which may intensify the

spotlight even more on TSMC's third quarter results on Thursday.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSM ), the main producer of

advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications, is

expected to report a 40% leap in profit to T$298.2 billion

($9.27 billion) thanks to soaring demand.

The world's largest contract chipmaker, whose customers

include Apple, Nvidia and ASML, has benefited from the global

surge towards AI. A miss or weak guidance, however, could

trigger another wave of selling across Big Tech.

But assuming analysts' estimates are met or even exceeded,

the backdrop to Thursday's session in Asia looks favorable,

despite the dollar's tick higher. The VIX index of U.S. stock

market volatility dipped back below 20.0 on Wednesday and oil

fell for a fourth day in a row.

Falling oil prices are often a warning of weak global

economic activity and demand. A huge miss and surprising slump

in Japanese machinery orders on Wednesday will only have

strengthened those concerns.

But the disinflationary pull from oil's weakness cannot be

ignored, and if investors like one thing it's lower interest

rates. In that light, investors will have been encouraged by the

price signals from around the world over the last 24 hours.

Inflation in New Zealand was slightly weaker than expected,

inflation in Britain was much weaker than expected and sure to

cement UK rate cut expectations, while the Bank of Thailand

delivered a surprise rate cut.

With the European Central Bank widely expected to cut rates

on Thursday by 25 basis points for a second meeting, to 3.25%,

global financial conditions are loosening. Rates traders

currently expect the Fed, ECB and Bank of England each to cut

rates another 50 bps and the Bank of Canada to cut at least

another 75 bps by the end of the year.

That's a lot of easing, especially without a recession, at

least in the US. Indeed, if there is a US recession coming,

someone forgot to tell the corporate bond market, where spreads

are now the tightest in nearly 20 years.

This is usually where the first hints of recession are seen

as investors move to price the impending impact of rising

unemployment, slowing growth and consumer weakness on companies'

debt loads.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Thursday:

- Australia unemployment (September)

- Japan trade (September)

- Taiwan's TSMC earnings (Q3)

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