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MORNING BID ASIA-Peace hopes pierce gloom, but safety trades dominate
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MORNING BID ASIA-Peace hopes pierce gloom, but safety trades dominate
Feb 24, 2025 2:12 PM

Feb 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

World markets are at a delicate juncture as a string of

unexpectedly soft economic indicators intensify U.S. growth

concerns, just as rising global trade tensions and geopolitical

uncertainty are already clouding the investment landscape.

Stocks are feeling the heat and the dollar is under pressure

too, while safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold -

especially gold - are attracting strong demand.

Investors on Monday initially welcomed Germany's election result

and gave a thumbs up to the new government's 'pro-growth'

policies, but the early bounce in Europe faded and Asian bourses

were a sea of red.

Wall Street managed to erase some losses after U.S.

President Donald Trump said G7 nations are united in their

resolve to see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and that he and

Russian President Vladimir Putin are in "serious discussions"

about achieving that goal.

But Trump later repeated his commitment to slapping tariffs

on imports from Canada and Mexico soon, and stocks stumbled

again.

The Asian calendar on Tuesday includes an interest rate decision

from the Bank of Korea, trade figures from Thailand and Hong

Kong, and Taiwanese industrial production figures for January.

Economists expect the BOK to cut its key interest rate by 25

basis points to 2.75% on Tuesday, after unexpectedly standing

pat last month as policymakers waited for domestic political

turmoil to stabilize before easing further.

Economists polled by Reuters expect Tuesday's cut to be

followed by a further 50 points of easing this year. Money

markets are a little less dovish, pricing in only two full

quarter point cuts this year.

Industrial production in Taiwan ended last year on a high,

boosted by seasonal factors and perhaps firms accelerating

production ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. The 20% year-on-year

rise in December was the fastest growth in five years, and is

unlikely to be repeated in January.

The bigger issue for markets right now, however, is the

deterioration in U.S. economic numbers. Having convinced

themselves that the 'soft landing' was assured, investors are

now entertaining the possibility that the economy may be in the

early stages of rolling over.

Citi's U.S. economic surprises index is now negative, and

the lowest since the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a

50-basis point cut last September. It has been mostly falling

since the November presidential election.

Two more quarter-point cuts from the Fed this year are now

fully priced into the U.S. rates futures curve, and options

market activity may also be pointing in the same direction. S&P

500 option volumes hit an all-time high of 4.74 million

contracts on Friday, according to CBOE, with demand for 'puts'

rising.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Tuesday:

- South Korea interest rate decision

- Taiwan industrial production (January)

- BoE, Fed, ECB policymakers speak at BoE conference

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