April 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Interest rate decisions in New Zealand and Thailand are the main
events for Asian markets on Wednesday along with Chinese bank
lending figures, as investors brace for a rocky open following
Wall Street's lackluster performance the previous day.
U.S. stocks closed in the green on Tuesday but only barely,
despite the biggest one-day fall in Treasury yields in over a
month, and a notable slide in oil prices.
Taken together, a case can be made that investor sentiment
is fraying. With many benchmark stock indices and key commodity
prices hovering at historic and even record highs, fatigue may
be setting in.
Once again, however, Japan seems to be bucking the trend
with the Nikkei 225 looking to test 40,000 points again and make
a push to fresh all-time highs.
The yen's slide back towards 152 per dollar could facilitate
that push, but will also probably spark another wave of verbal
intervention from Japanese authorities. Actual FX market
intervention is a real possibility if 152.00 breaks.
On the data front, wholesale inflation figures from Japan
could be the catalyst for dollar/yen testing 152.00, but the
main indicator will be Chinese bank lending.
Investors will be hoping for signs of recovery in March from
February, when loan growth from a year earlier slowed to a
record low 10.1%.
Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 3.56 trillion
yuan ($492.11 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, more
than double the 1.45 trillion yuan in February, according to a
Reuters poll.
On the policy front the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank
of Thailand are both widely expected to keep key rates
unchanged, meaning signals about the future policy path in the
coming months will be more important for local asset markets.
All 29 economists in a Reuters poll expect the RBNZ to leave
its official cash rate on hold at 5.50% for a sixth consecutive
meeting. Fifteen of the 29 expect the first cut to come by the
end of the third quarter and the other 14 forecast the cash rate
to remain unchanged until the fourth quarter or later.
Consensus around the BOT staying on hold, meanwhile, is much
flakier, with inflation running below target and the economy
unexpectedly contracting at the end of last year.
Sixteen out of 26 economists polled by Reuters reckon the
BOT will keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate at 2.50% for
a third straight meeting, and the other 10 forecast a
quarter-point cut to 2.25%.
That is a drastic change from a February poll when a strong
majority of economists expected rates to stay unchanged this
quarter and median forecasts showing the first rate cut in Q1
2025.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- New Zealand interest rate decision
- Thailand interest rate decision
- China bank lending (March)
(By Jamie McGeever;)