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MORNING BID ASIA-The waiting is over ... almost
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MORNING BID ASIA-The waiting is over ... almost
Nov 9, 2024 11:07 AM

Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia are bracing for a day of potential high drama

and volatility on Wednesday as the outcome of Tuesday's U.S.

presidential election begins to emerge.

Whether the final result is known in Asian hours remains to

be seen - that could take days if the count in certain key swing

states is tight - but the yen, gold, dollar and Treasury futures

could be most sensitive to election-related swings in sentiment.

Wednesday's trading in Asia may ultimately be marked by

volatility and uncertainty, but markets may open on a solid

footing after a strong reading of U.S. service sector activity

sparked a broad-based rally on Wall Street on Tuesday.

The three main U.S. equity indices rose at least 1.00%,

while gauges of implied stock market volatility remained

subdued. U.S. equity investors, at least, went into election day

in a reasonably upbeat mood.

The dollar weakened significantly and U.S. bond yields also

rose, which is often a bad combination for Asian and emerging

markets. Implied U.S. bond market volatility remains elevated

too, with the "MOVE" index at its highest in a year.

Currency market volatility is also high. A broad measure of

G10 FX implied "vol" is hugging the 18-month high struck last

week, while one-week dollar/Mexican peso implied vol is at the

highest since March 2020 and one-week implied vol for China's

offshore yuan is at a record high.

The Mexican peso and Chinese yuan are two currencies that

could be hit hardest by extra trade restrictions and import

tariffs imposed by Washington, a scenario most likely to play

out if Donald Trump wins the election.

Investors will also be sensitive to the announcement of any

economic support measures from China's Standing Committee of the

National People's Congress that is convening this week in

Beijing.

Shanghai stocks closed at a four-week high on Tuesday,

boosted by upbeat comments from Premier Li Qiang on China's

recovery and improving economic data. Services activity expanded

in October at the fastest pace in three months, a private survey

on Tuesday showed.

The Asian calendar on Wednesday, meanwhile, includes an

interest rate decision from Malaysia, inflation data from Taiwan

and Thailand, and services PMI data from Japan and India.

The Bank of Japan releases minutes of its September policy

meeting, and Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das

speaks, while on the corporate front the world's largest

automaker Toyota releases second-quarter results.

Toyota is expected to post a quarterly operating profit of

almost $8 billion, marking its first profit drop in two years

and signaling cooler demand after a run of robust earnings

helped by a consumer shift away from electric vehicles.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Reaction to U.S. presidential election result

- Malaysia central bank decision

- Japan services PMI (October)

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