Dec 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The global market spotlight on Monday looks set to zoom in on
the dollar, especially its performance against emerging market
currencies, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's weekend
warning against the so-called 'BRICS' nations.
In a social media post on Saturday, Trump demanded that the
'BRICS' countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South
Africa - commit to not creating a new currency or supporting
another currency that would replace the U.S. dollar, or face
100% tariffs.
This comes after Trump had already injected additional
volatility into world currency markets last week by proposing
big tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada - countries the US
has some of its largest trade deficits with.
The dollar's path on Monday will be fascinating to observe.
It snapped an eight-week winning streak last week with its
steepest weekly fall since mid-August, as U.S. rate cut
expectations cooled and Treasury yields fell.
But much of the dollar's downward momentum last week was
down to its weakness against the euro and yen. It has been much
firmer against other G10 currencies - not least the Canadian
dollar - and especially emerging and Asian currencies.
Sentiment toward emerging markets as the final month of the
year begins is still mostly downbeat. Outflows from EM bond
funds remain heavy, and according to analysts at Barclays EM
hard-currency bond funds last week registered their
second-largest outflow so far this year.
But there are more encouraging signs from China that the
raft of stimulus and support measures from Beijing in recent
months may be beginning to bear fruit.
A private survey on Sunday showed that new home prices in
China rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.40% in November versus
2.08% in October. And on Saturday, China's official purchasing
managers index data showed that factory activity expanded
modestly for a second straight month in November, and at its
fastest pace in seven months.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel for China's domestic
economy? With Trump ramping up the trade threats ahead of his
inauguration next month, policymakers in Beijing and China bulls
will certainly be hoping so.
Asia's economic calendar on Monday sees the release of a
raft of manufacturing PMI reports, including China's
'unofficial' Caixin manufacturing PMI data for November. Will
that reinforce the modestly encouraging signals from the
'official' figures over the weekend?
Economists polled by Reuters expect a reading of 50.5, up
from 50.3 in October, which would mark the fastest pace of
expansion since June.
Other regional highlights on Monday include the latest
Australian retail sales data and inflation figures from
Indonesia. According to a Reuters poll, consumer prices rose at
an annual rate of 1.50% in November, cooling from 1.71% the
previous month. That would be the lowest rate of annual
inflation since June 2021.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (November)
- Australia retail sales (November)
- Indonesia inflation (November)