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MORNING BID ASIA-Trump's BRICS warning shines light on emerging FX
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MORNING BID ASIA-Trump's BRICS warning shines light on emerging FX
Dec 1, 2024 2:15 PM

Dec 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The global market spotlight on Monday looks set to zoom in on

the dollar, especially its performance against emerging market

currencies, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's weekend

warning against the so-called 'BRICS' nations.

In a social media post on Saturday, Trump demanded that the

'BRICS' countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South

Africa - commit to not creating a new currency or supporting

another currency that would replace the U.S. dollar, or face

100% tariffs.

This comes after Trump had already injected additional

volatility into world currency markets last week by proposing

big tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada - countries the US

has some of its largest trade deficits with.

The dollar's path on Monday will be fascinating to observe.

It snapped an eight-week winning streak last week with its

steepest weekly fall since mid-August, as U.S. rate cut

expectations cooled and Treasury yields fell.

But much of the dollar's downward momentum last week was

down to its weakness against the euro and yen. It has been much

firmer against other G10 currencies - not least the Canadian

dollar - and especially emerging and Asian currencies.

Sentiment toward emerging markets as the final month of the

year begins is still mostly downbeat. Outflows from EM bond

funds remain heavy, and according to analysts at Barclays EM

hard-currency bond funds last week registered their

second-largest outflow so far this year.

But there are more encouraging signs from China that the

raft of stimulus and support measures from Beijing in recent

months may be beginning to bear fruit.

A private survey on Sunday showed that new home prices in

China rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.40% in November versus

2.08% in October. And on Saturday, China's official purchasing

managers index data showed that factory activity expanded

modestly for a second straight month in November, and at its

fastest pace in seven months.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel for China's domestic

economy? With Trump ramping up the trade threats ahead of his

inauguration next month, policymakers in Beijing and China bulls

will certainly be hoping so.

Asia's economic calendar on Monday sees the release of a

raft of manufacturing PMI reports, including China's

'unofficial' Caixin manufacturing PMI data for November. Will

that reinforce the modestly encouraging signals from the

'official' figures over the weekend?

Economists polled by Reuters expect a reading of 50.5, up

from 50.3 in October, which would mark the fastest pace of

expansion since June.

Other regional highlights on Monday include the latest

Australian retail sales data and inflation figures from

Indonesia. According to a Reuters poll, consumer prices rose at

an annual rate of 1.50% in November, cooling from 1.71% the

previous month. That would be the lowest rate of annual

inflation since June 2021.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (November)

- Australia retail sales (November)

- Indonesia inflation (November)

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