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MORNING BID ASIA-'Turnaround Tuesday' soothes nerves ... for now
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MORNING BID ASIA-'Turnaround Tuesday' soothes nerves ... for now
Aug 6, 2024 3:07 PM

Aug 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia will be hoping that the recovery in global

sentiment and risk assets on Tuesday extends into Wednesday,

although the rebound in U.S. bond yields and the dollar may cool

some of that optimism.

Nothing epitomized 'Turnaround Tuesday' more than the whoosh

in Japanese stocks - a day after tumbling 12% in their second

biggest fall on record, stocks rallied 10% for their third

biggest rise on record.

In some ways, however, day-to-day swings of that magnitude

based on not a lot of fresh or major market-moving news are red

flags. They're typical of more protracted and volatile

downturns, and many investors are retaining a cautious stance.

That said, any respite is welcome. Implied yen volatility

remains elevated but eased off on Tuesday, and Wall Street and

MSCI's emerging, Asian and world stock indices all gained more

than 1%.

Fears of impending U.S. recession will have been allayed

further too, as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth tracker estimate

for third quarter GDP growth was raised to 2.9% from 2.6%.

Little wonder that U.S. bond yields and the dollar rose.

That's a twin dynamic that is rarely positive for emerging

markets, but if it is part of a broader market recovery and

cooling off in volatility then investors may be more forgiving.

Emerging market participants will also note that the steep

fall in U.S. yields in recent weeks has more than offset the

decline in stock prices. So much so that emerging market

financial conditions are now the loosest since January,

according to Goldman Sachs.

Wednesday's calendar in Asia includes Chinese trade figures

for July, the latest FX reserves holdings from China, Japan and

Hong Kong, and earnings reports from Singapore's top bank DBS

and Japan's SoftBank Group.

China's trade data will be under even particular scrutiny

given the ratcheting up of U.S. trade and tariff tensions.

Export growth is seen quickening, a potential silver lining to

the world's second-largest economy still struggling under a

property sector bust, weak consumer demand and the threat of

deflation.

Monthly changes in countries' FX reserves holdings rarely

have an immediate impact on financial markets, but anyone with

an interest in the dollar's reserve status will cast an eye

towards the latest updates from Beijing, Tokyo and Hong Kong.

That's nearly $5 trillion of reserves, 40% of the global

total. China holds the world's largest stash, with $3.22

trillion, and Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S.

Treasuries, with $1.13 trillion.

Several leading policymakers in the Asia and Pacific region

are scheduled to speak on Wednesday, including Reserve Bank of

Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter, Bank of Japan deputy

governor Uchida Shinichi and Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput

Suthiwartnarueput.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Wednesday:

- China trade (July)

- China, Japan, Hong Kong FX reserves (July)

- Softbank earnings (Q1)

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