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MORNING BID EUROPE-All eyes on how Warsh walks the line
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MORNING BID EUROPE-All eyes on how Warsh walks the line
Jun 16, 2026 9:35 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom

Westbrook

Kevin Warsh wraps up his first Federal Open Market Committee

meeting with tumbling oil prices and a tentative peace offering

a helpful backdrop for leaving interest rates on hold, as

traders expect.

Market focus will be on how he votes, his news conference

and how he navigates explaining the outlook.

Warsh is not a fan of "forward guidance", and may choose to

refrain from offering a projection for interest rates as part of

the quarterly economic outlook the U.S. central bank publishes.

But he was picked by U.S. President Donald Trump to cut

rates and, with inflation above target and employment solid,

markets expect a hike. So he will be asked about it and the

dollar has been dithering this week, waiting to hear from him.

If he does not push back on market pricing, investors might

take that as a hawkish signal. But if he does, then investors

might worry about inflation - leaving a delicate task.

He'll also have to face a boardroom where his predecessor,

Jerome Powell, still has a vote.

Perhaps the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida

offered a template of a steady hand on Tuesday. He managed to

preserve policy flexibility without spooking markets.

Uchida did have a bit of extra help from Japan's finance

ministry, which is lurking just off-stage with threats to

intervene in the currency market, should the yen fall again.

Asian markets traded mostly sideways on Wednesday, with

Warsh the main show in town and sellers of oil taking a breather

to wait for confirmed details of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Brent futures have sunk below $80 a barrel on reports the U.S.

plans lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. Other than the Fed show

on Wednesday, Sweden's Riksbank is expected to be on hold but

signal a hike could be coming later this year.

British inflation is seen creeping up to 3% thanks to higher

oil prices, while final European readings are not expected to

deviate from preliminary figures.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

- Rate decisions in the U.S. and Sweden

- British inflation

- U.S. retail sales data

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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