A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Kevin Buckland

How well France's hastily assembled anti-far-right front is

working will become clear today, with candidates having until

Tuesday evening to drop out of Sunday's crucial second-round

vote to leave only those with the best chance of winning.

Following the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic National Rally's

(RN) strong showing in the first round last weekend, the

priority among its rivals is preventing Marine Le Pen's party

from taking a majority.

That means fielding only the best-placed rival to the RN's

candidate, irrespective of party - even if that candidate is

from the equally divisive far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.

Currently, the market's base case appears to be a hung

parliament, although it would also risk political paralysis for

the remainder of President Emmanuel Macron's tenure to 2027.

Stocks rallied, particularly in France where the CAC 40

jumped more than 1%. Some payback might be the immediate

reaction on Tuesday morning, with pan-European Stoxx 50 futures

pointing down about 0.1%.

The euro remains firm, even in the face of renewed

dollar strength. Other greenback rivals are not proving so

resilient, particularly the yen, which is still

languishing close to a 38-year trough, keeping traders of high

alert for another round of official Japanese intervention.

The dollar-yen pair is particularly sensitive to long-term

U.S. yields, which have spiked amid the growing risk of a second

Donald Trump presidency, which traders and analysts equate with

higher tariffs and bigger spending.

The U.S. currency and yields are also elevated based on the

idea that Federal Reserve policy isn't going to loosen at an

accelerated pace, with inflation still pretty sticky and the job

market quite tight.

A parade of potentially crucial employment data begins on

Tuesday with the JOLTS job openings report, a Fed favourite,

followed by ADP numbers a day later and the all-important

monthly payrolls figures on Friday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has the opportunity to present his

latest take on the economy when he participates in a panel at an

ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, later in the day.

The data calendar is fairly light for Europe, with euro-area

flash inflation figures for June and the jobless rate for May.

Elsewhere, Big Tech may be wondering who's next in the

European Commission's crosshairs, after Meta Platforms ( META )

was charged with antitrust breaches on Monday.

Apple and Microsoft were both targets of the regulator last

month over App Store rules and the bundling of Teams with the

Office 365 suite, respectively.

Nvidia ( NVDA ) faces its first-ever anti-trust charges,

with sources telling Reuters that French regulators are

preparing to charge the AI poster child with anti-competitive

business practices.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

-Deadline for candidacy in French election's second round

-Euro-zone flash HICP (June), jobless rate (May)

-US JOLTS (May)

-Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at ECB forum